AI crashed, but semiconductors soared? Let's decode the massive capital shift behind the 'Black Monday' in U.S. stocks!

After the U.S. stock market opened today, investors were probably stunned: The Nasdaq experienced massive volatility, with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and Meta, among other AI giants, facing heavy sell-offs. However, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $AMD(AMD.US), and ASML bucked the trend and rose. Meanwhile, safe-haven funds flooded into "benchwarmer" sectors like Coca-Cola and REITs.

This isn’t just a simple decline—it’s a violent portfolio shift from "virtual to real."

1. The "Crisis of Faith" in AI—A $100 Billion Shock

1. The Butterfly Effect of NVIDIA and OpenAI Rumors: Today’s biggest negative news came from The Wall Street Journal: Due to concerns about OpenAI’s business discipline and profitability, NVIDIA is reportedly reassessing its previously pledged $100 billion investment plan.

NVIDIA’s stock price dropped nearly 3% intraday today. As the "anchor" of the AI narrative, its investment moves directly triggered collective doubts about whether "AI commercialization is progressing too slowly," dragging down the AI software and large-model sectors.

2. "Valuation Killing" During the Earnings Vacuum: The U.S. stock market is entering the mid-phase of the most critical earnings season. Microsoft, Meta, and other giants previously disclosed staggering AI capital expenditures (CapEx), but revenue conversion rates didn’t exceed market expectations. At 2026’s high valuation levels, "anything short of exceeding expectations is a disappointment," prompting funds to take profits at highs.

2. Why Semiconductors Defied the Downturn—From "Hype" to "Capacity Grab"

1. TSMC and the Semiconductor Hardware "Pragmatists" Strike Back: Unlike the illusory narratives of AI software, hardware orders are transparent.

TSMC surged over 3.5% against the trend today. The core logic is that its Q1 2026 revenue forecast was raised to $35.8 billion, with gross margins at an astonishing 63%-65%. This means that regardless of which AI model wins, chipmakers and equipment suppliers (like ASML, AMAT) are making real money.

2. The "Price Hike Logic" of Memory Chips and Advanced Processes: AMD, Micron, and SanDisk held firm today.

Industry data shows that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) orders are already booked until 2027. Funds are shifting from "potentially loss-making" AI applications to "absolutely profitable" upstream semiconductor hardware.

3. The Destination of Safe-Haven Funds—Consumer Goods and Real Estate

1. Interest Rate Sensitivity Shift: With inflation data stabilizing, expectations for further Fed rate cuts have heated up, pushing Treasury yields lower.

Real estate (XLRE) and utilities (XLU) became safe havens due to their high-dividend attributes.

2. The Backlash of Risk-Off Sentiment: As global risk appetite (Risk-off) contracts, funds instinctively seek certainty—"even if the AI bubble bursts, people will still drink Coke and pay rent." The defensive rally in consumer staples (XLP) reflects institutional hedging.

Deep Dive: Bubble Burst or Bull Market Shift?

Key Takeaway: By 2026, U.S. stocks have entered a phase where "hard tech beats soft tech."

AI Software/Models (AI Platform): Undergoing a "reality check" amid disillusionment.

Semiconductor Hardware: Remains the ballast of the bull market, leveraging monopolies and pricing power.

Defensive Sectors: Provide a floor during volatility.

Don’t be spooked by index declines—focus on upstream semiconductor leaders that "tax others’ profits." As for overvalued AI plays, wait for the dust to settle.