Selling gold now? Can you still buy in a bull market? Who's the final buyer in this grand finale?
Gold prices are like a roller coaster, with spot prices pulling back after breaking through $5,000. Retail investors are torn between "sell or hold"? Don't rush to cut your losses; this bull market is far more than just the surface appearance of geopolitical conflicts (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East). The New York Times report "Sell America" on January 31, 2026, points directly to the core: global central banks' gold reserves have surpassed their holdings of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, setting a new record. China, Turkey, and Poland led the way in purchasing 900 tons of gold in 2025.
Debunking Misconceptions: Don't Be Fooled by "Geopolitical Headlines"
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump's "targeted arrests," the Greenland resource war—geopolitical risks are merely short-term catalysts. A Goldman Sachs report shows that global central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September 2025 (only 21 tons in August), with Asian central banks (e.g., Qatar 20 tons, China 15 tons) taking the lead. This isn't about making quick profits; it's about ballast in the face of a U.S. dollar credit crisis.
Underlying Logic: U.S. Dollar Credit Collapse + Central Banks "De-dollarizing"
U.S. national debt has soared to $37 trillion, with annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion (fiscal revenue of $4.8 trillion is barely enough to cover interest). The freezing of Russian overseas assets during the Russia-Ukraine war has alerted the world: holding U.S. Treasuries equals political risk. The New York Times cites the World Gold Council: central bank gold purchases doubled after sanctions on Russia, with emerging markets accelerating the "gold > U.S. Treasuries" rebalancing.
Three Questions on the Truth Behind Central Bank Gold Purchases (World Gold Council + Goldman Sachs Data):
1: Why are they buying? To avoid sanctions/U.S. dollar devaluation risks and stabilize their own currency exchange rates. In 2025, central bank gold holdings exceeded U.S. Treasury holdings (for the first time since 1996), with emerging markets leading the way.
2: Will they continue? Yes. Goldman Sachs predicts 80 tons per month in 2026 (starting Q4). Soochow Securities: the gold-buying wave is "trend-driven," with the gold price center moving up to $4,900.
3: When will they sell? When U.S. policy becomes moderate (no longer harvesting globally) + technology breakthroughs (global prosperity), central bank funds will shift to stocks/enterprises. Goldman Sachs: rising risk appetite → falling gold demand → natural price correction.
Practical Judgment: Current Strategy
Index Daily Change Key Signal
Dow Jones +1.57% Holding above 49,600, VIX falls to 22
Nasdaq +2.1% Reclaiming 22,000, RSI rebounds to 45
S&P 500 +1.23% 80% of stocks closed in the green from red
The New York Times warns: the gold price is reminiscent of the period just before the "U.S. dollar decoupling" in 1971, with central banks quietly reducing U.S. Treasuries and hoarding gold—this is not a crisis, but the prelude to a new monetary order.$Gold(IN00380.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $S&P Global(SPGI.US)
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