South Korea gets hit with BACK TO BACK days of cir

South Korea gets hit with BACK TO BACK days of circuit breakers…

Down 8% AGAIN after yesterday’s 7% drop.

Okay, here’s why I *think* this is happening and what it means for US markets:

1. One thing to understand about South Koreans is they LOVE leverage. There is literally a 100K+ subscriber YT Channel exclusively about IONQ that South Koreans watch daily as there is huge appetite to look for the next big thing, which many Koreans think is quantum. South Korea has as a HUGE gambling culture. Crypto investors are a MASSIVE consumer of perpetual futures that offer 10-250x leverage. The country hosts trading tournaments where people live trade futures and others in the audience watch. All this to say, if the country’s own index, KOSPI, was up 40%+ YTD…I’d imagine the leverage would get even juicer which unfortunately means the downside momentum can also get ugly.

2. Memory names probably are taking a breather. To be honest, I don’t see any fundamental problem with Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Sandisk, etc. They are booked for years even after raising prices. But, memory is characterized as cyclical and if there is any threat or fear of headlines that go counter to the “memory being out of supply” narrative then that could break the momentum. The margin calls are likely compounding the selling in these names. Important to remember is Samsung and SK Hynix are 50% of the entire index, so if memory goes, the index goes. I think memory will be okay but it is not crazy to see people take profit after 40-70% runs this year alone.

3. Korea is VERY exposed to LNG imports from Iran. The major reason for the sell off today seems to be that Asian liquefied natural gas soared to the highest level since 2023. Spot prices reached $25.40 per million British thermal unit in Asia which is more than double last week. Also, more pressure is expected for as long as Qatar’s output remains suspended given it supplies a HUGE amount of oil/gas to Korea.

If the broader LNG market continues to be disrupted…the margin calls could compound forcing a sell off in what many people are leveraged in…memory which could then further escalate the decline of the index. However, if policy changes or Trump gets involved, this could also just not be a huge deal and we see a recovery for Korea.

Now, if this continues…it does hurt the US. It won’t have a direct proportional impact but if the Koreans start selling their NVDA or TSLA to fund the margin calls, not good for tech. Overall, the S&P is flat this year so it doesn’t have the same risk on a momentum basis that KOSPI had but to me this highlights a much bigger story: oil is everything. If we cant keep prices low and make sure countries get their oil, disruptions to the global markets are not easily going to go away.

Source: amit