旧识先生
2026.03.08 01:33

After HIMS and NVO shook hands and made peace, is there only one script left?

The most dramatic plot in the pharmaceutical circle recently is

Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) moving from "facing off in court" to "co-selling drugs."

Everyone knows what happened before:

HIMS seized the GLP-1 shortage window, sold a compound version, its stock price soared;

Regulatory tightening and patent pressure emerged, its stock price plummeted;

The market began to doubt whether its growth logic held water.

The real turning point was the announcement of cooperation between the two parties.

The essence of this step is not a simple positive, but a business model switch.

HIMS no longer relies on the "shortage dividend," but shifts to "official distribution channels." NVO gains a traffic entry point, HIMS gains legal status.

The story changes from "regulatory arbitrage" to "channel synergy."

Next, I only see one possibility. Not a violent rebound, not a second crash. But rather—a period of volatile revaluation.

Why? Because now the market needs to re-answer a question: Is HIMS truly a traffic-based platform, or just a beneficiary of the weight-loss window period?

Short-term sentiment will recover, that's natural, but there's only one core variable for the medium-term stock price: 👉 Can official drug distribution bring sustainable profits?

If after cooperation: revenue growth is maintained, gross margin doesn't collapse significantly, user conversion efficiency improves, then the market will gradually accept it as an "internet healthcare distributor," and its valuation will slowly rise, not explode.

But this process will definitely be confirmed through repeated volatility, not a straight-line move.

So how to operate?

I only give one idea:

Don't chase the first wave of sentiment-driven surge. Wait for earnings reports to verify the cooperation's effect, wait for the profit structure to stabilize, then decide whether to increase position. At this stage, it's more like an "observation period" than a "betting period."

This is not a wish-fulfillment script of a miraculous comeback, but a battle for valuation repair after a business model transformation. Whether it can go far doesn't depend on news sentiment, but on the income statement.

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)

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