I see a lot of retail panicking over $Micron Tech(

I see a lot of retail panicking over $Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings at $468.

In general, re-pricing in stocks happen before earnings are announced.

The exception is "unless there's a major surprise with guidance".

Micron earnings beat was not a major surprise.

Here's my take:

- Jan 25th 2026: Public news broke out Samsung was doubling NAND prices Q1, DRAM ~70% compared to Q/Q estimates of 33-38%.

Institutions probably got word a few days early from 300 paid vendor analysis, which is why $Micron Tech(MU.US) went from $300 -> $400.

- Back in early March: News broke out Samsung was doubling NAND prices for Q2, which was a major surprise, beating some estimates by 20 times, while beating others by 5 times.

There was also news that Samsung/SK Hynix were planning large DRAM price increases for the next quarter.

However, this was coupled with index dropping/broader macro fears from the Ukraine war.

While there was a major sell-off in majority of names, these fundamental changes, likely led $Micron Tech(MU.US) to outperform names like $Micron Tech(MU.US) that dropped 20% YTD.

Leading up to earnings, there was a Bloomberg terminal report projecting Micron to beat earnings, which sent the stock from $400's to $460.

The thing is:

Majority of this earnings beat was known in advanced and priced in throughout the entire year.

If you ever read my posts,

- I've been trying to track DRAM/NAND prices along with estimating hyperscaler demand:

- Tracking to track crude/LNG/Helium disruption on semi supply chains and modeling in any margin impact

Which is how you price in memory companies.

-> Earnings are just confirmation that your estimates before were right.

So if you're buying options on the earnings week:

This is a terrible idea.

All the profit to be made is before information is known and priced in by the broader market.

Source: Serenity