Day 19 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)

Wilmar closed at S$3.61, while the gravity line sits at S$3.81, placing price about -5.18% below trend. During the session, price dropped sharply and touched the -10% gravity band (~S$3.43) before staging a strong rebound into the close.

From my point of view, this is not a clean breakdown — it is a rejection of extreme downside. The selloff was fundamentally driven (weak 1Q earnings quality, hedging losses, softer JV contributions), but the price action shows responsive buying exactly at the -10% support zone.

My interpretation:

The trend has temporarily lost momentum (price below gravity).But the market defended the key support level aggressively. This shifts the setup from “breakdown risk” → “potential mean-reversion bounce”

Analyst context reinforces this. With consensus fair value roughly S$3.57–S$3.65, the drop has pushed Wilmar into fair-value territory, which explains the buying interest at lower levels.

My bottom line:

Wilmar is now in a tactically interesting zone. The stock is technically weak (below gravity), but the strong rejection at -10% suggests downside is being absorbed. If price can reclaim the S$3.75–S$3.81 gravity zone, I would view this as a successful shakeout. If it fails to do so, the risk shifts back toward retesting the S$3.43 support.