Paradi Lab
2026.06.23 22:55

Helping you understand today's market sell-off:

Paradis Macro Report [June 23]:

-> KOSPI closed -9.99%:

Second worst day this year, and fifth worst ever. With SK Hynix and Samsung both down over 12%.

A few drivers:

1. MSCI kept Korea in Emerging Markets which killed the passive inflows were estimated to be $24B (UBS).

2. There was also forced deleveraging of retail leverage.

3. Profit taking mainly driven by SK Hynix overtaking Samsung's market cap (viewed as a market top).

4. Profit taking ahead of $Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings tomorrow.

Retail investors tried buying the dip ($5.6B), which is the largest single-day retail net buy ever. But that wasn't enough to overcome the sell off.

Looking at current volatility levels, the drawdown in Korea looks set to continue tomorrow as more retail investors are forced to unwind positions.

-> The sell-off in Korea extended into US semiconductors:

Nasdaq fell 3.2% and the SOX fell ~7.8%.

With names like $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), and $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) all down over 10% today.

AI stock price moves are largely memory-driven. If memory goes down, so do other AI adjacent names (usually).

However, it is crucial to remember that the memory supercycle is still in tact w/ sold-out capacity all through 2026-27.

Plus hyperscalers forecasted to spend up to 50% of 2027 capex on memory alone as per SemiAnalysis.

-> Micron earnings tomorrow:

I'm personally expecting Micron to report sublime earnings and guidance tomorrow.

However, do not be surprised if the market sells the report just like last quarter.

And if you've read my previous reports, you'd note that I have been firmly against using leverage for the past few weeks.

Today's events are proof.

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