Serenity
2026.08.08 18:29

Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $Nebius(NBIS.US):

First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through:

> $Alphabet(GOOGL.US): reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings

> $Amazon(AMZN.US): reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings

> $Meta Platforms(META.US): reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings.

Now, time to look at Nebius:

-> $Nebius(NBIS.US): Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power.

-> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride

-> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter.

Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge?

-> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $Lululemon(LULU.US) to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good.

Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $Lululemon(LULU.US)

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