Equity research
2026.08.17 16:17

GF Securities: CPO/NPO Update

NVIDIA Spectrum-X CPO Scale-Out

Production Status: Spectrum-X Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) switches for scale-out networking have officially entered mass production.

Volume Forecasts:

2026E: 15,000 units

2027E: 100,000 units

Supply Chain Ramp: TSMC has expanded CPO inspection equipment capacity—specifically adding Insertion 2/3 capacity—alongside supply chain progress in Fiber Array Units (FAU), shuffle boxes, and system assembly.

Rubin Ultra Scale-Up Architecture & Optical Engines

Tray Design Options: Rubin Ultra is slated to adopt a 9-18-9 tray design, though mechanical challenges associated with the 0.75U height profile could drive a potential reversion to a 10-9-8 layout.

Design Impact: Architectural shifts in tray layout will have no impact on the optical engine (OE).

NVIDIA Platform OE Shipments:

2027E: 6 million units

2028E: 19 million units

Total Industry-Wide OE Shipments:

2027E: 11 million units

2028E: 40 million units

Amazon Trainium 4 & NPO Deployment

AWS Consumption Projections:

2H27E: 5 million OE units

2028E: 12 million OE units (primarily 6.4T specifications)

Configuration & Packaging: Trainium 4 is projected to feature 3 distinct configurations, with two configurations expected to adopt Near-Package Optics (NPO).

$Amazon(AMZN.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

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