The gains in Hong Kong stocks are gradually narrowing. I checked WeChat groups and saw many people saying "it won't last more than 3 seconds." Although in the past, $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) experienced deep pullbacks after seeing huge trading volumes, will it happen again this time? Let me state the conclusion first—the situation is slightly different this time.
The first similarity is the external factor—the most important one—the U.S. has already started an interest rate cut cycle. Domestically, recent policies introduced by the mainland outline a full-force release of economic stimulus signals from the policy toolbox.
Against this backdrop, I personally believe this rally can be seen as a "healthy bull market."
The second difference is that Hong Kong dollar deposit rates are bound to follow the U.S. rate cuts, indirectly forcing funds to seek returns from other assets like Hong Kong stocks. The People's Bank of China intends to further lower deposit rates, and with Hong Kong's interest rates remaining relatively attractive, it could also draw mainland capital inflows.
What do you all think?
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