
XIAOMI Fortune winner
Traded Value$PDD(PDD.US) has been relatively weak among Chinese concept stocks recently, possibly due to the following reasons.
Concerns about a "bomb" in the Q3 earnings report, as management issued a "warning" during the last earnings call. Additionally, the stock's performance is negatively correlated with Trump's approval ratings—the higher Trump's approval, the weaker Pinduoduo performs. The market worries that if Trump is re-elected, he may significantly raise tariffs, increase the tax-free threshold for cross-border e-commerce, or even eliminate small parcel exemptions. In the worst-case scenario, TEMU could be forced to exit the U.S. market.
These views are short-sighted. One or two quarters of earnings hardly affect a company's value. A strong business model, good management, and deeply ingrained corporate culture are what truly matter. Moreover, Q3 earnings won’t be that bad—it’s just unrealistic to expect doubling every quarter.
As for Trump, it’s just short-term noise. Even in the worst-case scenario—exiting the U.S. market—it’s no big deal. The U.S. market’s share is already shrinking and could eventually fall below 20%. By then, even if the U.S. shuts the door, it wouldn’t matter. The U.S. is enduring, but Trump is temporary—how many more years can he last? Can he outlast Pinduoduo? 🤔
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