Farmers assist China Resources Small Meat, Horizon is not ideal for everyone, Longpan Technology may have meat to eat if the lower limit is priced!

For arbitrage-type new stocks like $CR BEVERAGE(02460.HK), market expectations range between -10% and +10%.

Whether it falls or rises mainly depends on the performance of Nongfu Spring these days.

Coincidentally, Nongfu Spring $NONGFU SPRING(09633.HK) has seen a 5% increase in stock price recently, which indirectly supports CR Beverage.

Today, in the gray market, CR Beverage rose by about 10% across the three major gray market systems, hitting the upper limit of market expectations.

CR Beverage is essentially an arbitrage-type new stock, and arbitrage-type stocks have their own strategies.

However, never mistake arbitrage-type new stocks for sure-win stocks and go all-in!

What if, during this period, Nongfu Spring had plummeted instead of rising? Wouldn't that make winning the lottery feel like getting stabbed?

Tomorrow is CR Beverage's first trading day. Whether it performs better or worse than the gray market ultimately depends on Nongfu Spring's performance tomorrow—this is the inescapable fate of arbitrage-type new stocks.

Speaking of arbitrage-type new stocks, another one just listed today: Longpan Technology $LOPAL TECH(02465.HK), a dual-listed stock in both A and H shares.

Brother Cai hasn't had time to read the prospectus yet, only glancing at the A-H discount and basic IPO information.

Longpan Technology's IPO market cap ranges from HKD 2.993 billion to 4.656 billion, with an A-H discount between 31% and 56%.

If priced at the lower limit, the H-share discount would be 56%, which is quite generous. Brother Cai checked, and the highest A-H discount in the industry is 42%.

Pricing at the lower limit isn't too risky, but to achieve that, public subscription needs to be lukewarm—preferably not exceeding 15 times!

Additionally, Longpan Technology's two sponsors have strong historical track records, giving Longpan a hint of dark horse potential.

If Longpan Technology's subscription doesn't exceed 15 times, Brother Cai will likely apply.

Of course, this is just a preliminary plan. Besides the subscription cap, Longpan's A-share price must also avoid a sharp decline in the coming days.

Therefore, the final subscription plan will likely be announced by Brother Cai the day after tomorrow.

........

Tomorrow, Horizon Robotics $HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK) will debut in the gray market.

The rumored allocation plan is already out.

Horizon Robotics is priced at the upper limit of HKD 3.99. Group A has a 100% allocation rate—one lot for one application, two lots for two applications. Group B heads get around HKD 210,000 worth of shares.

With such an allocation plan, everyone gets a piece. However, most recent IPOs have broken issue.

Still, some believe Horizon Robotics could be a major dark horse.

Whether it's a dark horse or a dud, we'll find out tomorrow afternoon.

Brother Cai didn't apply for this gamble!

That's all for today's analysis. I hope you found it helpful! I'm "Reading Financial Reports for New Stocks," an ordinary investor who loves reading financial reports, specializes in HK IPO subscriptions, and invests across HK, US, and A-shares with a long-term focus and short-term supplements. See you next time!