morning_wind
2025.01.27 11:33

DeepSeek's new reasoning model, after fermenting over the weekend and accompanied by the app topping the charts in North America, triggered a massive turbulence mode in the semiconductor sector during Monday's pre-market trading in U.S. stocks (of course, the Nikkei in the East Eighth Time Zone had already fallen during the day). My views on the major individual stocks are as follows:

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), bearish. DeepSeek R1/Zero clearly conveyed a viewpoint: while there might still be some room in the pre-training phase, it is currently a direction with relatively low ROI. In the post-training phase, reinforcement learning can lead to the emergence of reasoning capabilities, and the main investment focus will inevitably shift to post-training. More importantly, the post-training model is more about standing on the shoulders of giants. In this scenario and phase, computing power is relatively less critical among the three key factors (data, algorithms, and engineering practices are more important). NVIDIA's previously high premium is likely to be the most affected now.

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