Friends from Longbridge are quite something—only 63% of them think their driving skills are better than average. From the series of similar surveys I've seen, this proportion usually exceeds 66%, and 70%-80% is not uncommon. In other words, people generally tend to overestimate their abilities, and the same goes for investing.

The problem is, in the securities trading market, it's not a game where half the people make money and the other half lose. Usually, 80%-90% of people end up losing. If you want to avoid losing money in the long run, you need to at least be in the top 20% of the market. Do you think you're at that level? And what if we factor in the bias caused by overconfidence?

At least for me, I don't think I'm there yet, especially when it comes to strategic operations. So I genuinely feel I'm not skilled enough to make money like those smart people. I can only choose the dumber approach.

Do you think you're suited for the smart approach or the dumb one? Are you more naturally talented at single-leg VP, or would you rather manage your finances as safely as possible? Choose the path that fits you.