[84/100] The effectiveness of the 30-week moving average

Conclusion: The 30-week moving average (30WMA) remains highly applicable today and is still one of the most core long-term trend indicators for global trend investors.

Far from being outdated, it has proven to be one of the most stable and effective moving averages in quantitative trend analysis, leading stock selection, and medium-to-long-term trading.

Below is a detailed explanation of why.

✅ Why is the 30WMA still effective today?

1. 30 weeks = 150 days, the standard cycle for global trend trading

Stan Weinstein (author of Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets)
William O’Neil, Mark Minervini
Most CTA trend models use 30–40 weeks as the core for long-term trend determination.

Because:

Long enough → Filters out noise
Short enough → Captures trend reversals
Aligns with market psychology (half-year rhythm)

2. The 30WMA has consistently outperformed across markets

For decades, the 30WMA has demonstrated robustness in:

A-shares
U.S. stocks
Commodities
Forex

Especially in index or leading stock trends, "breaking above the 30WMA with an upward turn" often signals the start of a major uptrend.

3. The 30WMA’s signals align with modern quantitative systems

Modern quantitative trend strategies widely use:

150-day MA (same as 30WMA)
200-day MA
20-week MA—all effective signals for long-term trend analysis.

For example, the renowned GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation) model still employs the 200-day MA for risk control.

👉 In other words, the "philosophy" of the 30WMA has been extensively validated and preserved in modern quant systems.

4. Particularly effective in China’s market

A-shares are highly noisy with frequent false breakouts.

Daily charts are prone to "fake signals," while weekly charts are more stable.

The 30WMA provides:

More robust trend identification
Fewer false signals
Better references for major rotations

Many A-share bull runs begin with a classic pattern:

Volume breakout above the 30WMA → MA turns upward → Major uptrend

⚠️ Does it need adjustments?

While modern trading moves faster, the 30WMA remains robust. For flexibility, some traders use:

20-week MA: More sensitive, suited for high-volatility markets
30-week MA: Classic stability
40-week MA: Longer cycle, ideal for ETFs or indices

But for medium-to-long-term trend followers targeting leaders, the 30WMA remains the golden cycle.

📌 Summary

The 30-week moving average remains relevant today and is still one of the most effective trend indicators.

It’s stable, reliable, and universally effective—unfazed by changing times.