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Rate Of Return🔥🎯 Howard Marks 再次出手 $GRAB：这不是预测，而是 “提前站位”
$Grab(GRAB.US) has reappeared in Howard Marks' investment trajectory, and it's not a one-time bet but a continuous increase in position.
The background is clear: Oaktree Capital bought 10.2 million shares of $Grab(GRAB.US) in Q1 2025, added another 1.29 million shares in Q2, and continued to increase its position by 520,000 shares in Q3. The pace is steady, and the direction is clear.
If we break out the valuation of Goto Mobility / Delivery at around $15B and combine it with the approximately $6B in cash on $Grab(GRAB.US)'s books, the market's valuation of $Grab(GRAB.US)'s core business is still being held at an extremely conservative level.
Based on FY2026 calculations, $Grab(GRAB.US) is currently at roughly 3x P/S, close to 2x P/S after excluding cash, and this is a company with continuously improving profit margins and accelerating growth.
Howard Marks often says:
“You can’t predict, but you can prepare.”
This time, he is clearly "preparing" rather than betting on short-term sentiment.
On one side, the balance sheet has significantly strengthened, the unit economic model is rapidly improving, and there's an additional long-undervalued Fintech option; on the other side, the stock price narrative remains stuck in the pessimistic framework of 2022. This misalignment is precisely the entry point Marks has always excelled at.
From an operational quality perspective, a key change for $Grab(GRAB.US) occurred in Q3 2025—the first time GAAP Operating Income turned positive.
What does this mean?
It means the "operational inflection point" Howard Marks bet on when increasing his position in Q1 2025 wasn't hindsight but a judgment validated by financial data.
The more macro-level logic is also important. Howard's view on Southeast Asia isn't new:
Regional stimulus policies exceeding $50B+, a weakening dollar, a young demographic structure, and rapid digital penetration of 80–90%—these factors combined naturally favor platform-based, payment-focused, and digital infrastructure companies.
In his view, 2026 is likely to be a "moderate return environment":
Under the current valuation system, most mature market assets may only deliver single-digit returns over the next 5–10 years.
And this is exactly why Oaktree is turning its attention to Southeast Asia and $Grab(GRAB.US)—a target where, after risks are fully priced in, the potential returns are still underestimated.
If you piece these clues together, a clear outline emerges:
This isn't a sentiment trade, nor is it a bet on a single quarter, but a long-term strategy centered on structural return differentials.
Only one question remains:
When the market finally starts repricing $Grab(GRAB.US) based on the "operational reality of 2026–2028" rather than the "fearful memories of 2022," will the current position still be seen as an opportunity?
📣Continuing to share my long-term strategies and thoughts on Southeast Asia, platform economies, and undervalued growth assets.
$Grab(GRAB.US) #HowardMarks #OaktreeCapital #SoutheastAsia #TechStocks #Fintech #EmergingMarkets
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