
Alphabet Return RateOracle has such a large debt, will it collapse in the future? What impact will it have on NVIDIA if it really collapses?

Oracle's free cash flow for the past 6 months (as of 11/30) was approximately -$10.329 billion, with net debt around $88 billion. With such high debt, could it collapse in the future? And if it does, what impact would it have on NVIDIA?
First, look at the cash flow: For the past 6 months ending 11/30, Oracle's net profit was $9.062 billion, operating cash flow was $10.206 billion, but capital expenditures were $20.535 billion, resulting in FCF of approximately -$10.329 billion.
This shows the profit quality is still decent (CFO > profit), but building data centers is too costly: Earnings aren’t enough to cover spending, so they’re relying on financing to bridge the gap.
Can the cash flow handle the debt? At least for now, it seems manageable: Quarterly interest expenses are about $1.057 billion, against operating profits of ~$4.731 billion per quarter—not yet at the "robbing Peter to pay Paul, can’t even cover interest" stage.
Over the past 6 months, CFO was $10.206 billion, CapEx was $20.535 billion. To fill the gap, they raised ~$17.880 billion in net financing (e.g., long-term debt) while still paying dividends.
As for the "$523.3 billion backlog," more accurately, it’s high RPO (remaining performance obligations) with strong contract visibility, so the market is still willing to finance them. But turning these contracts into revenue and cash takes time.
Thus, investors aren’t worried about "immediate bankruptcy" but rather the "recovery pace": If future collections/utilization/margins can’t keep up with CapEx expansion, we might see debt balloon further → financing costs rise →被迫 slow expansion → valuations get discounted further.
Impact on NVIDIA? Oracle is a key cloud customer/partner. A "soft collapse" (slowdown) would likely mean:
1) Delayed/reduced new data center and GPU purchases (affecting NVDA’s short-term shipment rhythm)
2) More aggressive price negotiations in the next round
The bigger hit would be sentiment: If the market takes it as a signal of "AI infrastructure deleveraging," CapEx across the chain would turn cautious, dragging down NVDA’s valuation and short-term growth expectations.
For now, a collapse seems distant, but watch four things: FCF gap narrowing, credit rating actions, cloud growth/guidance, and financing conditions. If any deteriorates sharply, NVDA’s "expectations" and "valuation" may drop first, not the AI thesis itself. Long-term NVIDIA investors should treat this as volatility—don’t get swayed by the noise.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
