How do you view the current JD.com

Looking back from December 2025, JD.com's stock price has indeed gone through a "darkest hour." As for the current stock price and the future, we can view it as a typical case of "short-term pressure, long-term restructuring."

Simply put, JD.com's stock price is currently at a low level, suffering from both the "growing pains" of the macro environment and short-term performance, as well as the market's "scrutiny" of the input-output ratio of its new businesses. However, at the same time, it is also accumulating the power to rebound through buybacks and strategic adjustments.

To help you better understand the situation, I’ve broken it down into the following key dimensions:

📉 1. Current stock price: Why is it in the "undervalued" range?

The current stock price reflects the market's pessimistic expectations for JD.com's short-term performance, but it has also fallen to a level with a safety margin.

• Weak stock performance: As of December 24, 2025, JD.com's U.S. stock hovered around $29, while its Hong Kong stock traded near HK$112-113. Compared to previous highs, the stock has clearly pulled back. Even the recent IPO of JD Industrial saw a break below the issue price, indicating that the market has become very rational—even conservative—in pricing JD-related assets.
• Historically low valuation: JD.com's current P/E ratio is only around 10x (even lower for its U.S. stock). For a giant with annual revenue exceeding a trillion yuan, this valuation usually means the market has little confidence in its growth prospects or views it as just a low-margin traditional retailer.
• Concentrated short-term negative factors:
  • Weak home appliance sales: This is the biggest weight on the stock price. Due to the phase-out of "state subsidies" and a high base, home appliance category sales plummeted nearly 20% YoY in November. Since home appliances are JD.com's "core business," this directly dragged down Q4 performance expectations.
  • "Cash-burning" pains of new businesses: JD.com is aggressively investing in new businesses like food delivery and international expansion. While these businesses are growing rapidly (e.g., new business growth exceeded 200% in Q3), their severe short-term losses are eroding profits on the financial statements, leading Wall Street to "vote with its feet."

🧭 2. Future direction: Walking on two legs, with both opportunities and risks

Looking ahead, JD.com's trajectory will depend on whether it can balance "defending its core business" with "venturing into new territories."

🔴 Risk factors (downside pressure)

• Uncertainty in core category recovery: The speed of the rebound in home appliance sales will directly determine the strength of JD.com's performance recovery. If the macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations, growth in JD.com's core revenue will be limited.
• Break-even for new businesses: While the food delivery business is growing rapidly, competition is extremely fierce (facing Meituan and Ele.me). The market is very concerned that JD.com will fall into the quagmire of "revenue growth without profit growth"—where order volume increases but profits are eaten up by subsidies and delivery costs.

🟢 Opportunities (upside potential)

• Management's "real money" support: JD.com recently announced a buyback plan of up to $3 billion. In capital markets, buybacks by major shareholders and management are a strong signal of a stock bottom, indicating that insiders believe the current stock price is undervalued.
• Extension of the "quality" moat: JD.com is replicating its "quality" branding from retail into food delivery and home services. This differentiated strategy (focusing on "cleanliness," "punctuality," and "quality ingredients") could carve out a niche in the red ocean market, driving new user growth.
• Deepening international strategy: JD.com is increasing its investments in the European market, even acquiring a controlling stake in Ceconomy, a European home appliance retail giant. While there are short-term integration risks (e.g., the recent theft at a French warehouse), this is a key step for JD.com to find a second growth curve in the long run.

📌 3. Summary and recommendations

How to view it?
You can think of JD.com as a "giant ship shifting gears." It is no longer pursuing pure speed but is adjusting its engine. Although short-term turbulence (stock price decline) is caused by weak home appliance sales and new business investments, its deep supply chain foundation and cash flow remain healthy.

Recommendations for you:

• If you're a short-term investor: Now is not the time to "buy blindly." Closely monitor home appliance sales data for Q1 2026 and the losses in the food delivery business. Before new policy support (e.g., another round of home appliance subsidies) materializes, the stock price may remain volatile.
• If you're a long-term investor: The current low valuation does offer a high safety margin. A P/E ratio of around 10x, combined with aggressive buybacks, means you're buying a cash-rich supply chain giant at a "bargain price." As long as JD.com can successfully navigate the transition between old and new businesses, there is significant room for recovery in the future.

In summary, JD.com's current stock price reflects "the valuation of a mature company doing the work of a growth company." This is both a risk and a potential source of future excess returns.

$JD-SW(09618.HK)