BMNR extreme value derivation 0106

With the end of the Christmas holiday, trading volume quickly rebounded, and cryptocurrencies have seen significant gains since last Friday, with BTC breaking through 93k and ETH surpassing 3.1k, both of which were major resistance levels before. From a technical perspective, ETH has already exited Green4 and remains in an upward trend.

With changes in the macroeconomic environment, the safe-haven attributes of fiat currencies have weakened, while commodities like gold continue to be sought after due to their hard currency properties. Following this logic, crypto assets will also benefit, with BTC corresponding to digital gold and ETH to digital means of production (commodities). This might be the new narrative for the long cycle. Next, we will continue to track mNAV for extreme value projections, with the next update on coin accumulation progress by 1.12.

Core hypothesis: With MAVEN's imminent launch, staking progress is also worth monitoring. I have updated the model to include staking volume tracking. This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.14 million coins, with 32k added last week, and cash positions reduced to 915 million. Staking progress reached 659k, with 250k newly staked last week, and mNAV rebounded to 1.05. This week's update has three key points to note:

Due to reduced trading volume during the Christmas holiday, institutional transactions decreased, with quant funds controlling the market. As a result, there was no institutional capital to support premiums, and mNAV dropped to a low of 0.91 last week. However, this was actually a great opportunity to add positions, as the market quickly corrected with the return of trading volume, allowing mNAV to rebound to 1.05 in just two trading days at 1.02 and 1.05.
32k new coins were accumulated, and cash positions decreased by 85 million, indicating that during the period when mNAV was below 1, the company chose not to conduct ATM financing but instead used cash reserves to purchase ETH. This reflects the management's operational discipline—no reckless financing, with all actions aimed at increasing ETH per share.
250k new staking, totaling 659k staked, accounting for 16%. At this rate, full staking of 4 million+ holdings should be completed in Q1, translating to an annual net profit of 370 million, which would position BMNR at the profitability level of a mid-cap blue-chip stock.

Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.35k, mNAV will rise to 1.15, corresponding to a stock price of 38; if ETH falls to 2.9k, mNAV will remain at 1, corresponding to a stock price of 29. The extreme range is thus 29–38.

Not investment advice.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)