The more retail investors overestimate themselves, the more they lose; the more cautious the top players are, the more they earn ✨ The truth hurts.

Notice it? The most ironic scene in the stock market: retail investors always think they can time the bottom and top, see through market trends, mistaking luck for skill; while those top players who make big money remain cautious in words and actions, always saying "respect the market."

🤦‍♀️ 3 pitfalls of retail investors overestimating themselves—hit all and lose for sure!

1. Mistaking market luck for skill: Catch one rally and call themselves "stock gods," thinking it's their IQ and insight at work, completely unaware it's the market giving them a chance. Next time, they go all-in and end up losing badly.

2. Underestimating market complexity: Read a few research reports, know a few indicators, and think they understand a company’s essence, ignoring industry logic, policy risks, fund flows, and other variables. Blind confidence leads to stepping on landmines.

3. Brainwashed by "survivorship bias": Only see their occasional wins, selectively ignore losses, always thinking "one more bet and I’ll double up," treating low-probability gains as the norm, trading more aggressively.

🙌 The core of top players’ caution: Knowing "cognitive boundaries" and respecting the market more.

1. Seen too many risks: Top players have lived through bull and bear cycles, witnessed black swans and blowups, deeply aware of the market’s uncontrollability. They know "even the best can’t read every trend," so they never overestimate themselves.

2. The more they know, the humbler they are: Understand financial statements, industry cycles, fund logic, yet are more aware of their blind spots. They never make judgments lightly, verifying every decision repeatedly.

3. Steady gains > "showing off": They care more about long-term compounding, not short-term windfalls. They know "caution keeps you alive longer," and avoiding risks is more critical than chasing opportunities. Hence, they act cautiously, never blindly following trends.

💡 Core logic: The shallower the knowledge, the easier to be arrogant; the deeper the knowledge, the more one respects the market.

Retail investors’ overestimation is essentially "blind confidence" from cognitive gaps—not understanding the market’s complexity makes them think they can control everything. Top players’ caution comes from witnessing the market’s cruelty yet staying humble, knowing "no skill can defy market rules."

In the stock market, true wisdom isn’t overestimating your ability to win, but recognizing your limits. Stay cautious like top players, use discipline against recklessness, fill cognitive gaps with learning—only then can you trade steadily.

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