Chatting about the recent market crash

Recently, mainstream risk assets have experienced significant declines and increased volatility. It's been a long time since I sat in front of the computer to read and write something, casually discussing the recent market crash.

1. The Nasdaq Index has been adjusting since January 28, currently down about 3% YTD and 6% from ATH. Software stocks led the decline, followed by the AI capital expenditures of the "Magnificent Seven," with high-beta stocks often plunging over 10% in a single day, amplifying panic. Last night, BTC briefly fell below $60,000, halving from its ATH, while VIX rose to 22, approaching 25.

Here are the specific declines from ATH for some key stocks:

$Barrick Gold(B.US) itMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) Bitmine -88.77%
$SentinelOne(S.US) trategy(MSTR.US) Strategy -79.79%
$Genpact(G.US) rayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF(ETH.US) Ethereum -60.27%
$Oracle (ORCL.US) Oracle -60.06%
$Genpact(G.US) rayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) Bitcoin -48.09%
$Netflix (NFLX.US) Netflix -39.77%
$iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV.US) Silver -37.41%
$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) Palantir -37.37%
$Microsoft (MSFT.US) Microsoft -28.45%
$ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US) ARK Invest -25.37%
$Tesla (TSLA.US) Tesla -20.46%
$Nvidia (NVDA.US) Nvidia -18.45%
$Macy's(M.US) eta(META.US) Meta -15.19%
$Amazon (AMZN.US) Amazon -14.05%
$Genpact(G.US) old.com(GOLD.US) Gold -12.81%
$Google-A(GOOGL.US) Google -5.53%
$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ.US) Nasdaq 100 -5.95%
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US) Russell 2000 -5.14%
$Apple (AAPL.US) Apple -4.13%
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US) S&P 500 -2.65%

2. About Software/SaaS Stocks:

The logic behind the decline in software stocks is the "OpenClaw + Claude Cowork" moment, making many realize that professional apps and SaaS might be unnecessary? Similar to last year's "Deepseek" moment, making people think that AI large models might not require so much computing power and GPUs.

From an investment perspective, I think it's necessary to avoid software applications without core barriers and those whose business models might be disrupted, because in this chaotic phase, no one can see clearly, leading to capital withdrawal or even shorting.

However, among software application stocks, there must be some that are unfairly sold off. Subjectively, I think: Microsoft is the strongest software stock, PLTR is a national destiny stock, and ORCL is an AI infrastructure software stock with both high risk and high returns—perhaps unfairly sold off.

Alternatively, we can think about this problem from another angle: What if one or even all three of these companies fail? AI and national destiny would suffer greatly, which is unacceptable for both sides and the president, leading to a chain reaction affecting the entire upstream and downstream, resulting in the collapse of all risk assets. "Too big to fail."

3. About BTC:

First, at the $60,000 level, I won't sell any of my holdings in BTC or the "Five Kings" of crypto stocks.

Second, regarding adding positions, I might use quantitative cash flow to DCA into BTC. For crypto stocks, since my position is already sizable, I won't add positions on the left side to avoid simultaneous heavy losses in both crypto and crypto stocks. I'll gradually add positions during the right-side phase.

Additionally, this BTC decline might be different from previous ones?

First, the magnitude of adjustment: BTC's adjustments are increasingly resembling U.S. stocks—swift on the downside, with deleveraging completed quickly. It just hasn't matched the bullish momentum of U.S. stocks on the upside yet.

Second, the time dimension: In 2022, BTC's bear market truly bottomed in mid-June, not November. From the peak in early November 2021 to the bottom in June 2022, it took about seven months. This time, from early October last year to early February now, it's been over five months—possibly faster.

Third, leading indicators: The correlation and leading nature between BTC and the Nasdaq are becoming increasingly obvious, making this cycle the most tightly connected between traditional finance and crypto assets. Last night, other risk assets were affected by BTC's sharp drop to $60,000, so "shared glory and shame." True bulls and builders deserve respect, like Saylor and Tom Lee.

4. About the Massive AI Capital Expenditures of Tech Giants:

Tech giants have successively released earnings reports. Beyond actual performance, the market is more focused on AI capital expenditures, which are indeed increasingly aggressive.

THE 2026 BIG TECH CAPEX ARMS RACE

• $Amazon(AMZN.US): $200B (+52% YoY)
• $Genpact(G.US) OOGL: $180B (+98% YoY)
• $Macy's(M.US) ETA: $125B (+74% YoY)
• $Macy's(M.US) SFT: $105B (+31% YoY)

AI is undoubtedly the core of this industrial revolution. Major countries and tech giants cannot afford to lose. If one or two companies act recklessly, ordinary people might think it's foolish. But when global elites all do this, do you think they're truly foolish, or do they see something ordinary people don't? Alternatively, think inversely: What if the "Magnificent Seven" all fail due to massive AI capital expenditures? The result would be the collapse of all risk assets—GG, GG, GG.

That's all for now. I hope everyone can stay confident. Core companies and BTC will recover. Sunrise and sunset are natural laws—there's nothing new under the sun.