$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Many people are now focusing on the issue of bottom-fishing in the SaaS software sector after it has fallen too much.

As a domestic veteran programmer with 13 years of Java experience, I'd like to say a few words. For some traditional SaaS software, such as factory inventory ERP management, hospital registration systems, and CRM management, etc., vibecoding is simply a dimensional reduction strike. The workload that used to take 10 man-days could be reduced to 5 man-days with AI support, and it doesn't require developers with particularly extensive experience.

A friend of mine runs a software outsourcing company in Suzhou, China, with about 10 people (including front-end and back-end developers and product managers). I often help write some code in my spare time. The current level of involution is beyond everyone's imagination. Projects that could be quoted at over 100k a few years ago might now be quoted at a maximum of 70k. It's possible that you quote 70k while the company next door quotes 50k. The severity is unimaginable. Several familiar software outsourcing companies have gone under before this Chinese New Year.

Of course, part of the reason is reduced project demand, but the biggest reason is still the oversupply of developers and the huge efficiency improvement brought by AI. So, even if the demand for software development remains unchanged, the supply side is likely to shrink by more than 50%.

I want to remind friends who are preparing to bottom-fish in the software industry to pay attention to whether the target companies only develop some xxx management software and profit through subscriptions or one-time development projects. I think under the impact of AI, these companies have no value for bottom-fishing investments.

Of course, for a company like Microsoft, which has a massive traffic entry point like Windows, I think this decline is an opportunity.