Likes ReceivedThe red envelope rally has begun!!
$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The morning session was very clear: weekend positive news + the surge in US stocks directly drove A-shares to open high and go higher, with trading volume significantly amplified. Capital is starting to enter the market to bottom-fish. However, hot spot rotation is particularly fast; real estate surged briefly in the early session then retreated. The sectors truly holding the fort are still tech growth directions like photovoltaics, the NVIDIA chain, and CPO.
The index directly stood above 4100 points. Although there is selling pressure, it can be very clearly stated: the most panicked phase for A-shares has passed, and the pre-Spring Festival red envelope market has officially begun.
Simply clarifying the midday market view for everyone to understand at a glance:
1. The core reason for today's high opening is the strong rebound in US stocks boosting sentiment. Hong Kong stocks and the Nikkei rose together. A-shares following the rise is completely in line with expectations, and the linkage between domestic and foreign market sentiment is very tight.
2. Above 4100 points, there are definitely arbitrage funds selling. Plus, there are only 5 trading days left before the holiday, so continuous sharp index rises are unrealistic. It's highly likely that the index will oscillate and stabilize around 4100 as the center, within a 50-point range. It won't crash hard, and it's also difficult to have a continuous short squeeze.
3. Trading volume has genuinely recovered. The turnover, which was low all last week, has significantly improved today. After the high opening, there was a pullback, but the support was strong. Domestic capital also flowed back with net inflows, and panic sentiment has basically subsided. Although some people are still holding cash and leaving the market before the holiday, the market can handle it, so no need to panic too much.
4. The style has completely switched to small-cap growth and tech themes: photovoltaics, semiconductors, cyclical sectors, and media are all moving, while defensive sectors like baijiu (liquor) and banks are lagging behind.
This is the rule of A-shares: as long as the market dares to attack, the main theme is always tech growth. Consumer and bank sectors are more of an oversold rebound and cannot become the main theme. The style is becoming more and more like the US stock market; technology remains the long-term favorite of capital.
Today, photovoltaics led the gains. The logic is very clear: firstly, the industry chain is moving away from internal competition, and earnings expectations are improving; secondly, Musk's research and space photovoltaics are catalysts. But a reminder: themes can cool down quickly when hyped. Don't blindly chase highs when risk warnings come out later.
5. Hold stocks or cash before the holiday? The answer is very straightforward: firmly hold stocks through the holiday.
The Dow has already broken 50,000, while A-shares are still around 4,000 points; the long-term slow bull pattern hasn't changed. Oscillating upward before the holiday, with another wave of attack after the holiday. Holding patiently is better than frequent, random moves.
The main theme after the holiday remains unchanged: tech growth is still the core. Defensive plays like baijiu consumption will only see catch-up gains when capital is fearful of highs and seeks safety. It's basically impossible for them to replace tech as the main theme.
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