Feast on big gains, avoid big bombs! Aixin broke its issue price, Diaoyu doubled, and Lanqi surged 60% on its first day!

Today's lottery results are out:

Aixin broke its issue price and didn't hold, but the fishing guys doubled their money if they bet on it!

Looking back at the strategy in the group: Be cautious with Aixin, bet on Lexin!

【Aixin Yuanzhi】: Once fell to -9%, narrowed to -5%$AXERA(00600.HK) 

Aixin, part of the OmniVision ecosystem, is a T2 factory transitioning to smart driving chips. Although many are bullish, I still gave it a cautious participation rating. The reasons are simple: it's too expensive, and the fundamentals for both the "present" and "future" are not solid enough! Early institutional estimates projected FY25 revenue could reach over 900 million, but achieving that is currently difficult...

Regarding the present, Aixin's current smart driving chip tier is relatively low. Its high-end chip M97 hasn't been produced yet, while Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame's high-end chips have been mass-produced and delivered since 2022. Furthermore, in the "OmniVision + Aixin + Nio" collaboration led by OmniVision, Aixin is still responsible for low-end chips, with the high-end position directly taken by Nio. This...

Regarding the future, its volume growth relies on models from Leapmotor, Aion, and some Geely models. Without a helping hand from OmniVision, it's very difficult to achieve significant volume!

And there's too much supply! Extremely high risk! There's not much to participate in!

【Lexin Outdoor】: Directly +100% doubled!$RIDGE OUTDOOR(02720.HK) 

There's not much to say about this one. It's exactly the small-cap mechanism B lottery ticket mentioned in the strategy, with 5,000 lots for the whole group in a lottery draw. Getting allocated is the goal. Those with smaller capital can try their luck, betting on the probability, just in case! We can only say that the recent IPO subscription sentiment in 2026 is quite good. This kind of target is still OK for now, and hasn't repeated the small-cap stock misery from the end of last year (starting with Haiwei).

Let's also talk about today's 【Montage Technology】First day +60%$MONTAGE TECH(06809.HK) 

Strategy at the time:

Nothing much to say, after all, everyone rushed in! Let's talk about other patterns here:

Benchmarked against GigaDevice: The memory narrative is still too strong. I checked the memory I bought last year for less than 2000, and today I looked it up and it's almost 5000! The strategy also wrote that Montage is benchmarked against "HK's first memory stock" GigaDevice. Currently, Montage's discount has been compressed to 10%, very close to GigaDevice's 5%!

First Day VS Grey Market: Generally speaking, for this kind of market-oriented super-strong narrative, the first day is much stronger than the grey market, as there will be strong institutional buying on the first day!

Montage's Listing: Currently, Montage's 45% discount listing is mainly to facilitate placement institutions and foreign capital to get shares. After all, some domestic market trends are recognized by foreign capital, while others may not be. Some stocks soar in the A-share market, but the discount is ridiculously high. Looking at the H-share trend, it's weak and sluggish. Montage's half-price listing is very attractive to foreign capital, and the company is also more willing to let foreign capital participate, making it more long-term. It's a win-win, and everyone gets a piece of the pie!