2026 Major Asset Allocation Framework

1. Asset Pricing Enters a "New Model": Core Drivers Shift from Single Macro to a Triple Game of "Macro + Politics + Risk"

• The traditional macro framework dominated by growth and inflation is becoming ineffective. The core contradiction in 2026 asset pricing is: the conflict between the Federal Reserve's independence and White House political pressure, and the conflict between price tools (interest rates) and quantitative tools (balance sheet).
• Political risks (e.g., Trump's policies), geopolitical risks, and extreme valuation risks are deeply endogenized, becoming key variables affecting pricing.

2. The World Economy's "K-Shaped Divergence": Internal U.S. Fragmentation, Europe's Resilience Exceeds Expectations

• United States: The economy exhibits "K-shaped" characteristics. Household balance sheets have improved overall, but wage growth is diverging, with low-income groups having fragile consumption power. AI investment is the core source of economic resilience, but momentum is slowing. The labor market is cooling, inflation is receding overall but faces upside risks.
• Eurozone: Economic resilience exceeds expectations, inflationary pressures are easing, trade policy uncertainty is decreasing, and the ECB is expected to continue cutting interest rates.
• China: Economic growth remains resilient, inflation is expected to recover from low levels, and policies maintain continuity.

3. Exchange Rates: Long-Term Weakness for the USD, Moderate Appreciation for the RMB

• US Dollar: Likely to continue weakening in the medium to long term, but the pace of decline is influenced by Fed independence, political pressure, and the global "de-dollarization" process. Short-term volatility may occur due to hawkish expectations surrounding the Fed Chair nomination (Warsh).
• Renminbi: Supported by fundamental recovery, trade surplus, capital inflows, and policy guidance, it is expected to achieve moderate appreciation.

4. Precious Metals: Bull Market Continues, but Volatility Intensifies

• Core Logic: Global central bank gold purchases (de-dollarization), geopolitical risks, and the long-term weakening trend of the USD jointly support the gold bull market.
• Risk Warning: Potential hawkish turns by the Fed could bring short-term adjustment pressure. Silver, due to its smaller market capacity and higher volatility, offers greater elasticity but also higher risk.

5. Industrial Metals (Represented by Copper): Benefiting from Global Electrification and AI Infrastructure, Tight Supply-Demand Balance

• Drivers: Global electrification (new energy), AI data center construction, and potential economic stimulus policies jointly drive demand.
• Supply-Demand Dynamics: Limited supply growth, insufficient long-term capital expenditure, and sustained demand growth create a tight supply-demand balance supporting prices.

6. Crude Oil: Supply Exceeds Demand Pattern Persists, Geopolitics Drives Wide-Range Fluctuations

• Fundamentals: Global supply growth (led by non-OPEC+) is expected to outpace demand growth, resulting in a supply-exceeds-demand pattern.
• Price Outlook: Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Middle East) will periodically push up risk premiums, with prices expected to exhibit wide-range fluctuations within an interval (WTI crude: $54-75/barrel).

7. Chinese Stocks & Bonds: Liquidity-Driven to Earnings-Driven, Hong Kong Stocks See Double Boost

• A-Shares: Valuations are within a reasonable range, the liquidity logic remains, but market focus will shift to earnings taking over from valuations. Corporate earnings are expected to improve driven by PPI recovery and new quality productive forces.
• Hong Kong Stocks: Against the backdrop of loose monetary policies domestically and abroad, they will experience a pattern of rising both earnings and valuations, with an overall trend of fluctuating upwards.
• Chinese Bonds: Benefiting from loose liquidity, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within the range of **1.6%-2.0%**.

8. U.S. Stocks & Bonds: Dominant Relationship is "Seesaw Effect," 2026 May See "Both Strong"

• Historical Pattern: In the U.S. stock market, the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds is far greater than both being strong or weak, and is the dominant state.
• 2026 Outlook: Multiple Fed rate cuts are expected to simultaneously benefit stock valuations and bond prices, potentially forming a pattern of resonant rise (both stocks and bonds strong).

9. Japanese Stocks & Bonds: Stocks Fluctuate Upwards, Bond Yields Under Pressure

• Japanese Stocks: Supported by moderate economic recovery, corporate governance reforms, and the tech narrative, they are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short-term volatility risks are increasing.
• Japanese Bonds: Under monetary policy normalization and supply-demand contradictions, yields still face upward pressure.

10. Core Risk Warning: Five Major Uncertainties Require Focus

The report explicitly highlights five major risks requiring focus:

1. Uncertainty risk from Trump's new policies
2. Uncertainty risk from a shift in Fed monetary policy (especially after leadership change)
3. Disturbance risk from geopolitical factors
4. Risk of unstable market sentiment
5. Risk of domestic policy implementation effects falling short of expectations

Summary:
The 2026 landscape depicted by the report is a complex environment characterized by "intertwined macro policies and political risks," "divergent global growth," and "transition between old and new drivers." Asset allocation requires "both offense and defense": the offensive direction lies in growth assets benefiting from the global tech wave and electrification (tech stocks, copper); the defensive direction lies in safe-haven assets hedging uncertainty (gold) and cyclical assets benefiting from supply-side optimization (some A-share cyclical stocks). At the same time, it is essential to pay high attention to the potential for sharp volatility triggered by policy and political risks under the "new model," maintaining strategic flexibility.