This year's AI landscape might really be changing! With some small gains from the pre-IPO grey market!
Let's not talk about IPO applications for now.
Let's talk about AI! Recently, I've really been bombarded by seedance videos, and I've watched a lot of its generated content. It's hard for me to imagine that AI's level of completion can be this high, see the image below!
Previous AI videos often felt a bit awkward in their outlines, but now the videos generated by seedance hardly have that feeling. It's as if it completely understands the character's 3D modeling and spatial relationships, with movements presented very smoothly! Moreover, the logic of the shot composition follows the logic of the movement, rather than unrelated quick cuts! It's almost at the level of many CG scenes! If you're interested, you can search for it yourself! With AI capabilities this strong, for us investors, it's about looking at opportunities and risks. If you follow US stocks, you should know how software stocks are currently performing:
Take SPDR's software ETF as an example. Since the tariff repair, it has been under pressure, oscillating and trending downwards for nearly half a year, and the decline has been especially severe recently. Stocks like Adobe, Unity, Roblox, Applovin, etc., have all fallen sharply! Unity's stock price recently halved, and companies like Adobe, which face a question mark regarding AI transformation, have been falling for 2 years. Even a strong AI application player like Applovin has been dragged down by the industry and suffered a big drop!
The decline in the past few weeks was mainly due to the following events. AI iteration is just too fast!
In January 2026, Anthropic launched the Claude Cowork tool, significantly intensifying market fears about industry disruption.
On January 29, 2026, Alphabet began rolling out Project Genie, a tool that can create immersive virtual worlds through text or image prompts. Gaming stocks were also swept into the selling wave.
On January 30, 2026, Anthropic officially released 11 new open-source plug-ins for Claude Cowork, further triggering panic selling of software stocks.
On February 5, 2026,Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.6, which supports one-time processing of entire due diligence files, multiple contracts, and financial reports for finance and law, automatically generating analysis and risk reports.
Let's not even talk about Google's demo of creating virtual worlds with images!
Anthropic's Claude Cowork itself is a research preview tool released in January, running on macOS. Users do not need a terminal or coding to authorize Claude to access local folders and perform multi-step complex tasks, such as file organization, document generation, report synthesis, browser automation, email organization, etc.
What's the key point? It's the threshold! Unlike Claude Code, which requires developers to operate in a terminal, Cowork allows AI to execute tasks directly through natural language instructions. This skips the technical barrier, enabling ordinary people to reach professional domains with its help. This is the beginning of value disruption!
The industries currently directly at risk are consulting, data, and similar fields. Apollo Global Management and Blackstone both agree that industries that are rule-based, highly repetitive, and can be replaced by natural language/agent automation face the highest risk. Claude Cowork currently directly conflicts with fields like financial and legal consulting. But looking at the overall picture, enterprise-level SaaS, professional knowledge services (law, financial data research), IT service outsourcing, and any other industry relying on standardized historical data processes will be disrupted!
If someone asks whether software stocks are undervalued, I can only say maybe. But if you want me to recommend them, that's definitely impossible. Perhaps there might be a rebound after this panic sentiment subsides. However, the current iteration speed of AI capabilities is too fast, the risks are really not low. There could be a major outbreak in 2026-2027. Moreover, as the penetration rate of large models increases, the competition faced by software stocks will become even more intense, even within AI itself. Among the "Magnificent Seven," there are laggards like META!
Although AI still benefits the entire industry, for enterprises, barriers to entry, moats, and competition might be more important. Unless this pie can grow at the speed of light, it's still a battle royale!
Now, let's look at IPO applications again
【Lead Intelligent】
Today, Lead Intelligent held steady at +1%, with a high of +3%. That's a small gain. As long as everyone didn't lose money, it's fine!
There's not much to say in the strategy, just the last sentence. The gain isn't big. I'm conservatively looking at a discount of 30-35%. Currently, it's at 29%. Let's see what range it will be in a few days after listing!
【Aixin Yuanzhi】
Aixin's green shoe worked hard today. It's quite something for the stock to move like an EKG chart on its first day of listing. It's rare for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to put in such effort!
【Lexin Outdoor】
To be honest, Lexin's first-day performance was quite surprising. There wasn't much selling. If you bought high in the grey market and sold, you might have gotten a 100~130% gain. But for me, it's impossible to go in and gamble on conscience. Earning a fair IPO profit is enough. Leave the secondary market to those who are truly optimistic!
For now, Aixin's first-day performance was saved by CICC, closing at 0%. The first day of 2026 saw 0 decline. Impressive!
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