30 minutes to market close! Meituan's hardcore analysis for the Spring Festival period: Searching for the 'extreme cold turning point' amidst a hellish oversold market 🚀

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) is currently quoted at 81.9, with the daily RSI having plunged into the extreme cold zone of 19.98. If you're still hesitating whether to cut losses or hold on, this quantitative game theory report based purely on technical analysis and leaning towards left-side trading is recommended for you to save and read repeatedly.

❄️ Current Market Situation: The Rubber Band is Stretched to the Breaking Point

The current candlestick pattern resembles a rubber band stretched to its limit.

Spatial Deviation: The stock price has completely broken below the Bollinger Band lower band (84.5), creating a strong gravitational pull for a return to the middle band (93.8).
Indicator Divergence: The 4-hour MACD histogram is shortening, and the initial signs of a bullish divergence are emerging. This indicates that although the price is falling, the downward momentum is already failing to keep up.
Extreme Sentiment: The daily RSI has fallen below 20. In Meituan's historical price action, such extreme cold moments often correspond to "the final blow caused by liquidity drying up."

⏳ Scenario Projection for Three Key "Time Windows" After the Holiday

We break down the game theory of these 2.5 trading days into three stages:

1️⃣ Stage One: New Year's Eve "Deep Squat" (Feb 16)
This is the most critical "stress test" of the entire game. With only a half-day session, liquidity will be exceptionally thin. Short sellers are highly likely to exploit this vacuum environment for a final directional inducement.

Prediction: A breach of the HKD 80 psychological level during the session is not ruled out, probing for a short-term sentiment bottom around 79.5.
Logic: This is the final clearance of panic selling and also the "golden deep pit" for aggressive long-side ambushes.

2️⃣ Stage Two: Vacuum "Time-Wasting" (Feb 20)
The first full trading day after the Spring Festival holiday. The market is just waking up from the holiday.

Prediction: Extremely low-volume consolidation. The stock price may hover between 80.5-82.0, with indicators repairing here and volume shrinking to the extreme.
Logic: This "silent period" is building momentum for a trend reversal.

3️⃣ Stage Three: Trend "Resonance" (Feb 23)
This is the day that decides the outcome, and the "release of gravitational pull" after all negative news is exhausted.

Prediction: The stock price is highly likely to rebound with the broader market on increased volume, targeting the daily 10-day moving average (around 85.5).
Logic: The market returns to normal logic, and the previously oversold gap begins to exert an attractive force.

🏹 Three-Dimensional Tactical Execution Manual

⚔️ Aggressive (Left-Side Ambush):

Action Point: Closely monitor the moment during the Feb 16 (Monday) session when the price dips into the 79.8-80.2 range.
Core Logic: Gamble on a V-shaped rebound repair after an extreme low is hit.

🛡️ Conservative (Right-Side Confirmation):

Action Point: Wait until Feb 23 when the stock price stabilizes above HKD 83.5 (reclaiming the 5-day MA) before entering.
Core Logic: Confirm the downtrend is slowing, following the broader market's trend repair.

🛑 Profit Lock (Reduction Target):

Target Zone: Upon rebounding to the 88.5 - 90.0 range (daily gap area), decisively reduce positions. The current trend remains bearish; all rallies can only be defined as "oversold repair" for now, not the start of a bull market.

⚠️ Hardcore Risk Warning (Must Read)

Meituan is currently in an extreme low left-side trading zone, where risk is proportional to reward:

Left-Side Risk: Bottom-fishing too early may encounter the risk of "a cellar beneath the floor."
Position Control: Absolutely no heavy or full positions over the holiday! Left-side positions are recommended to be kept within 1/3 of total portfolio, reserving funds to handle post-holiday volatility.
Stop-Loss: If the closing price effectively breaks below 78.5 with increased volume, it indicates a failed bottoming process, requiring a stop-loss exit.

"Extreme adversity" will eventually pass "with the trend," but staying alive is everything. Wishing everyone a smooth closing and a happy Spring Festival! 🏮💰