BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 3.10

Although there was macro volatility last week, the crypto market showed unique resilience, with ETH displaying strong support at 1.9k, and the BMNR premium also stabilized in the 0.95-1 range, with no further discount even as ETH fell further. With the G7 releasing oil reserves yesterday, the risk of oil shortage eased temporarily, and ETH quickly rebounded to 2k+, with the BMNR premium also recovering to 1+. I believe that both ETH and BMNR are currently in a bottoming phase, as evidenced by the fact that even with more negative macro crises, ETH did not fall to the previous low of 1.7k. The explicit encouragement for crypto and blockchain in the Cyber Strategy and the White House's firm support for the Clear Act are both signs of gradually normalizing regulation. The current position is like a spring compressed into a very tight range, with limited downside but accumulating upside potential.

This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.53 million coins, with an increase of 60,000 last week. The cash position increased to 1.2 billion, and mNAV recovered from last week's low of 0.95 to 1.01. Tom Lee believes that ETH's current trend is similar to the S&P 500's sharp declines in 2011 and 1987, with correlations of 89% and 93% respectively.

If this trend continues, ETH will likely bottom out and rebound within the next week. Therefore, Tom aggressively raised funds last week, increasing the fixed investment from 50,000 to 60,000 and raising the cash position to a record high of 1.2 billion to prepare for a possible final dip. Meanwhile, the staking amount remains at 3.04 million, with no new additions for a month. I speculate that we are in the final stage before MAVAN's official launch. The current staking ratio has reached 67%, and the remaining ETH might only be staked after MAVAN officially launches. The current market still follows the broader trend; ETH's trend is BMNR's trend. We continue to postpone projecting extreme ranges and lie flat, following ETH's fluctuations.

Not investment advice.