Regarding $AXT(AXTI.US), my first thought wasn't "can this stock still go up," but rather "what exactly does the market think it is?" Because its current price action clearly isn't that of an ordinary small-cap semiconductor stock anymore; it's more like being aggressively pushed by capital as an upstream material concept for AI optical connectivity. AXT produces compound semiconductor substrates, with indium phosphide being the hottest material recently. The core reason this material has caught the market's attention is that as AI data centers become more competitive, the demand for high-speed optical connectivity increases, making the indium phosphide narrative easy to repeatedly bring up. The company's February earnings report also mentioned Q4 2025 revenue of $23.04 million, full-year 2025 revenue of $88.30 million, and simultaneous expansion of indium phosphide capacity, aiming to double related capacity by the end of 2026.

So, this stock's recent sharp rise isn't completely illogical. Reuters page shows that AXTI's stock price reached around $67.35 near March 25, indicating that capital has already priced in the expectation of "scarcity of upstream materials for AI optical modules" quite fully.

Its most attractive aspect right now is also its most dangerous one. The company's annual revenue scale is actually still not large, and the profit side isn't easy either, with the full-year 2025 gross margin significantly lower than 2024. Additionally, much of its capacity and supply chain links are related to China, making geopolitics and export controls a persistent potential disturbance.

So my personal feeling is that AXTI isn't without substance; on the contrary, its current story is too smooth. Those who are genuinely bullish on it must accept that it might continue to be volatile; but those wanting to chase it now must also accept that if it no longer exceeds expectations, the pullback could be severe. Frankly, this kind of stock is suitable for tracking logic and rhythm, not for blindly following the hype.