March 27, 2026

Based on current market news and pre-market data, today's market sentiment is dominated by geopolitical risks. Although medium to long-term capital inflows are strong, short-term risk aversion is intense. In terms of operations, a defensive approach should be prioritized, with cautious participation in tech stock rebounds.

Below is the specific trading plan and logical analysis for today:

I. Core Market Assessment: Risk Aversion Prevails, Short-term Pressure

· Pre-market futures performance: As of the latest data, futures for the three major US stock indices are all down, with Nasdaq futures showing a relatively larger decline (-0.57%), reflecting continued selling pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.
· Market background:
· Geopolitical conflict persists: Although Trump announced a 10-day delay in striking Iranian energy facilities, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the military standoff between the two sides has not been substantially resolved, keeping international oil prices high (WTI crude up over 2% to $96.61).
· Contradictory fund flows: Last week saw a massive $37.2 billion inflow into US stock funds, indicating medium to long-term capital is optimistic about a ceasefire prospect. However, the overnight US market (Thursday) saw the Nasdaq plunge over 2% into a technical correction zone, showing short-term capital is fleeing, especially from tech stocks.

II. Today's Trading Plan

1. Short/Hedging Strategy: Long volatility or short high-valuation tech stocks

· Logic: The Nasdaq confirmed entry into a technical correction zone yesterday, and pre-market futures continue to weaken. Uncertainty in the US-Iran situation has led Fed officials (like Barr) to signal a preference for "holding steady," with the high-interest-rate environment suppressing tech stock valuations.
· Targets:
· Nasdaq 100 ETF: If the Nasdaq fails to hold above key support levels after the open, a small short position can be tested, betting on a continued intraday pullback.
· Semiconductor sector: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 4% overnight and remains under pressure pre-market, especially in the memory chip segment.

1. Safe-haven Allocation: Long energy and defensive sectors

· Logic: Oil prices receive strong support from the threat of Strait of Hormuz closure, with capital shifting from growth stocks to energy and utilities sectors.
· Targets:
· Occidental Petroleum: Rose over 4% against the trend overnight, supported by CEO retirement rumors and high oil prices.
· Valero Energy: Received a target price upgrade from institutions, surged nearly 6% overnight, with ample pre-market momentum.

1. Event-driven Opportunities: Focus on individual stock moves

· Long Unity Software: The company's stock surged over 14% pre-market due to Q1 preliminary revenue far exceeding expectations. In a weak overall market, stocks with earnings surprises are prone to attract concentrated capital.
· Short memory chip stocks: Google's "TurboQuant" technological breakthrough has triggered a market reassessment of AI hardware demand logic, suggesting it may suppress demand for certain types of memory chips. Related stocks like SanDisk, Micron Technology may continue their decline.

III. Key Data to Watch and Risk Warnings

· Evening economic data: The final reading of the US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released at 22:00 Beijing Time. If the data falls short of expectations, it may exacerbate market concerns about stagflation, triggering further selling.
· Fed speeches: Multiple Fed officials (Barkin, Daly, etc.) will speak tonight. Any hawkish remarks about "higher for longer" interest rates will put pressure on the stock market.
· Trading discipline: Today is a typical "macro-event-driven" market with huge volatility. It is recommended to reduce positions, avoid chasing rallies or selling in panic within the first half hour of trading, and wait for the Strait of Hormuz situation and oil price trends to become clearer before making trend-following trades.