The Nasdaq has fallen into the "correction zone"—the term sounds scary, but the real thing to fear is something else.

Conclusion first: The Nasdaq fell 2.38% to 21,408 last night, down more than 10% from its October 2023 high, officially entering correction territory (correction: a 10%-20% decline from a high, a standard Wall Street term, not as severe as a 'bear market'). On the same day, the OECD revised up its US inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.8% directly to 4.2% — this means the 'Fed rate cuts to the rescue' that the market could count on in every previous major decline is unlikely to come this time. If you hold US tech stocks, this article is worth finishing before deciding on your next move.
The word 'correction' sounds scary, but historically it's actually a frequent visitor.
From 1990 to now, the average S&P 500 correction (a 10%-20% drop) lasts about 17 days. A correction is completely different from a crash — the March 2020 pandemic event was a crash, where Apple and junk stocks were thrown out together. Last night's situation was that some things were falling, while others remained unmoved.
But every time a correction comes, social media splits into two camps: one shouting 'run!', the other shouting 'history proves corrections are buying opportunities'. Both sides have a point, and both are engaging in sophistry.
What really determines whether you make or lose money is not the correction itself, but the decisions you make during the correction.
I experienced one in December 2018. That year, the Nasdaq fell into correction territory, and my account was down 14%. Everyone said the trade war was doomed and Fed rate hikes would kill the bull market. I held on until the day before Christmas Eve, and finally couldn't take it anymore, cutting my tech positions by half. In January 2019, the Fed turned dovish, and the market V-recovered. If I hadn't touched the positions I cut, I would have broken even and made a profit by April.
Corrections don't kill. What kills are the three decisions you make during a correction: selling at the bottom, chasing at the top of the rebound, and then swearing you'll never trade stocks again — only to come back three months later.
But this correction has a problem that previous ones didn't.
How bad was last night's data? The S&P fell 1.74% to 6,477, its biggest single-day drop this year. Brent crude closed at $108, up 5.66%. Google released a new algorithm that allows AI models to use less memory, Micron fell 6.9%, NVIDIA fell 4.14%. Meta fell 7.9% after losing a child safety lawsuit. The CNN Fear & Greed Index (0 to 100, lower means more fear) dropped to 12-15, extreme fear.
But these aren't the most important news. The most important is that the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, essentially the 'official think tank' for the world's developed economies) revised up its US inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 4.2%.
Why is this number more important than how much the Nasdaq fell?
In every previous major decline, the market was betting 'the Fed will come to the rescue' — 2018 over-hiking → turned dovish → recovered. 2020 pandemic → zero rates + stimulus → recovered. 2022 inflation → hiking peaked → 2023 rate cut expectations began → recovered again.
But with 4.2% inflation, Fed rate cuts would make inflation higher. Not cutting puts pressure on the economy. This is stagflation (the economy is slowing, but prices are still rising, leaving the central bank in a dilemma) — meaning the 'safety net' present in every previous correction might be absent this time.
The OECD expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged throughout the year. Goldman Sachs pushed the first rate cut to September.
After-hours news: Trump extends ceasefire again
About 20 minutes after the US market close, Trump announced an extension of the pause on attacks against Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6. Brent futures immediately fell below $100.
The last similar script was on March 23 — after the Hong Kong market close, Trump announced a 5-day pause, and Hong Kong stocks caught up with a 2.79% gain the next day. Asian markets are highly likely to react positively today.
But how long did that March 23 five-day pause last? Oil prices returned above $100 in less than a week.
My positions and actions
Day 23, zero operations. The three observation conditions set on March 24 — the S&P below its 200-day moving average (average price over the past 200 days, a reference line for judging long-term trends), Iran's negative attitude, and Southbound capital direction — none have shown improvement yet.
If you hold US tech stocks, the most important operational framework now is: Do not chase the rally and add positions during today's Asian rebound. The ceasefire extension window is only 10 days. If there is no substantial agreement before April 6, oil prices will surge above $100+ again, and the selling pressure then will be greater than before. Specifically: If Brent can stabilize below $95 in the coming week, you could consider adding a small tech position — but only if you're adding stocks you genuinely believe in fundamentally (like Tencent's cloud business, NVIDIA's orders), not based on the logic of 'it's fallen a lot so it will rebound'. If Brent reclaims $105, continue waiting, no adding.
A self-check list for 'what to do during a correction': First, can your portfolio withstand another 10% drop? If not, use the rebound to reduce your position to a level where you can sleep at night. Second, are there any stocks in your holdings that you're holding 'purely because they've fallen too much to sell'? These are exactly the ones you should clear out during a correction — selling them isn't cutting losses, it's making room for the positions you truly believe in. Third, don't switch positions during a correction. Switching back and forth gets you hit from both sides; this is the most classic way retail investors lose money during adjustments.
Asia is highly likely to rebound today. But the correction isn't over yet, and every decision you make within it is far more important than the correction itself. What do you plan to do today? Tell us in the comments.

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