The mobile (ETF) is expected to be launched in May

The mobile (ETF) is expected to be launched in May-June, with an estimated discount of around 30% off the spot price.

III. Hard Supply Constraints: Capacity at Full Utilization, Expansion Extremely Difficult

Capacity utilization: 50%-60% in 2020-2022 → >95% in 2026Q1

Expansion cycle: 18 months (domestic) / 24 months (overseas), with high barriers for equipment, environmental assessment, and investment.

Structural shortage: Production lines shifting to high-margin G.657A2, passive contraction in G.652D supply.

No new capacity release before 2026Q4-2027Q1, leading to sustained tightness.

IV. Operator Game Theory: Dual-Track Pricing, Wave of Defaults

Spot price 100 yuan vs. old long-term contract 20 yuan, a 5x price gap.

Manufacturers would rather pay penalties to break contracts and sell on the spot market.

Delayed procurement leads to doubled costs and compressed construction cycles.

Centralized procurement prices will eventually converge with market prices.

V. Cycle Judgment and Risks

The industry continues to underestimate the price increase; supply-demand imbalance far exceeds expectations.

Support for high prices: rigid expansion constraints, diversified demand, product upgrades, global capacity reallocation.

Earnings lag: High-price orders from Q1 → concentrated confirmation in Q2-Q3, with momentum likely to last 1-2 quarters $YOFC(06869.HK)$Corning(GLW.US)

佩宁渊瑾财商成长系

Fiber Optic Supercycle: Hong Kong and A-shares of Changfei have taken off 🛫

$Corning(GLW.US)$YOFC(06869.HK)

💥This round is not a traditional cyclical rebound.

It's a fiber optic supercycle driven by AI + drones + three new overseas demands + supply rigidity.

High prosperity will be maintained in 2026-2027, with top integrated manufacturers benefiting the most.

Reasons why computing power, especially the Google chain, has far outperformed the market recently:

The new Anthropic model; Anthropic's annualized revenue surpassing OpenAI; Anthropic raising expectations for Google TPU;

Google announced it will significantly raise its 2026 TPU chip shipment target by 50% to 6 million units.

Fiber Optic Supercycle Report: Key Points Overview (2026.4.10)

1. Price Surge: Spot prices of three major fiber types are skyrocketing.

G.652D: 17 yuan → 95-100 yuan, +488%

G.657A2: 30 yuan → 250-260 yuan, +767% (highest elasticity)

G.654E: 135 yuan → 260-270 yuan, +100%

Core: G.657A2 is the tightest due to drone demand, G.652D is passively rising in price due to capacity being snatched.

2. Resonance of Four Major Demands (Core Driver of the Supercycle)

1. FPV Drones (Strongest Increment)

Fiber optic guidance replacing wireless, annual demand 40-70 million core-km, accounting for 20%-30% of domestic demand. Main model G.657A2, over 50% consumed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

2. AI Data Centers

Full capacity in North America is squeezing global supply, causing indirect shortages domestically; high-density cable usage increases 10x+, Changfei enters NVIDIA/Google supply chain.

3. Overseas FTTH Recovery

Penetration rate in developing countries only 10%-15%, exports account for 40%-45%, cash on delivery, high profit elasticity.

4. Domestic Operator Centralized Procurement

Annual demand about 200 million core-km, procurement price far below spot price, multiple failed bids, April telecom,

Biggest risk: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire causing G.657A2 demand to plummet; followed by procurement price pressure, capacity expansion exceeding expectations.