Ronade
2026.04.16 07:57

Talk Tsll

LongPort - 钢铁纪律
钢铁纪律

$Tesla(TSLA.US) was so busy with social engagements today, no time to watch the market. Just one post today:

I've been following Tesla for many years, this stock has a particularly nasty character! I like Tesla maybe because I still have a lot of gambling spirit in me. In recent years, aside from storage, no other stock has given me this addictive feeling.

That is, a big rally is suddenly surging for two or three days, then consolidating for five days, washing out, dropping a bit, falling $10 or $20, then suddenly exploding again and rising for another two or three days until some major event happens (like earnings or delivery numbers being announced). On that day, it will pump and then dump, causing a bunch of people to cut their losses. Then it consolidates for another week before continuing to rise. Finally reaching its destination, completing a wave.

I fully experienced being trapped at Tesla's 2021 peak of 414, went through the 2024 wave from 160-488, the drop from 488 to 220 (Musk DOGE), then from 220 back to 365, consolidated between 300-360 for four months, started from 360-498 in September 2025, and 498-334 in 2026.

Irresponsibly, I see this wave going to 334-474 (it might also be split into 2-3 unpredictable segments). Currently completed 334-398 (current night market price).

There's still about $80 from 398-474. But it won't be a straight line up here, it will be very choppy, similar to last September-December, where it took several waves to go from 360 to 498 (in November it dropped from 450 back to 390 then to 498... damn it), everyone should have experienced that.

Anyway, I'm a stubborn holder. I'll hold part of my position until 474 before exiting, I don't care about any drops in between. The other part of my position I'll day trade to reduce risk.

The train has left the station, the journey isn't very clear (there's earnings next week which will probably be bad, the broader market might pull back in the next three days), the ups and downs are unpredictable.

If you have some faith in Tesla, this year's destination is 474 (there's a gap above 474 that will be filled).

Are you on board? Are we on the same train? Buddy, got a light?

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