$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) written before the earnings report.

UNH has risen nearly 20% this month and also broken through all major moving averages. The current gap is right around the top of the last earnings report's plunge at 350. Fundamentally, there hasn't been much change; the earnings report is likely to slightly exceed expectations. In the absence of major positive news, I think it will either move sideways or dip slightly. After all, it's risen quite a bit; there could be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario with short-term profit-taking. There are also trapped positions from last time around the 350 gap. Based on this judgment, I'm clearing out my options positions. If there really is major positive news, like the call saying MLR is under control, I still have the underlying stock, so I won't lose out.

This is a recovery year. Institutional full-year EPS expectations are 17.87, 20 next year, and 24 the year after. That's not far from the 27 before the bomb in early 2025, when the stock price was close to 600. If you believe management, the stock price could return to its peak within 2 years.

This month, following UNH, I've also recovered a significant amount. If it can rise a bit tomorrow, it will set a personal record for monthly gains. Hope to see a pleasant surprise, not a shock, when I wake up tomorrow morning.