$Intel(INTC.US)

I've noticed many friends approach stock trading with a wishful thinking mindset. Once they've made up their minds about something, they're determined to see it through to the end.

It's common knowledge that Intel's earnings report won't be great. The transition of its foundry business won't happen that quickly, and profits won't explode immediately. So why is Intel rising? It's still due to the rise of agents, CPU shortages, and the overall shortage of computing power chips. There's only so much high-end manufacturing capacity, and Intel itself is constantly catching up. In the future, if you don't want Intel's foundry services, plenty of others will. The key question is when these large-scale orders will materialize.

You can look back at the information I posted in January. Someone could already calculate this shift in valuation model as early as last September. If it's the common stock, looking back now, buying at any time before and holding steadily would have been fine.

Sometimes, being too fixated on certain market swings can really wear you out. Moreover, if you stubbornly short with a must-win belief, what if Chen Liwu really announces and secures several big orders from Google, Tesla, Apple (although I also think it's unlikely)? What would you do? Keep averaging down until it hits $90?

Earnings reports are inherently hard to predict; there's no need to force it. Personally, I'm inclined to use a straddle to bet on volatility. The above is not investment advice.