1. Baseline Scenario (85% probability, dual-track tug-of-war)

• Overall Market: Neutral to slightly positive, volatility slightly recedes, the market quickly prices in that "the situation will not escalate, oil prices will not spiral out of control." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintain high-level fluctuations, with no systemic sharp decline. The core pricing anchor returns to Fed policy and corporate earnings fundamentals.

• Sector Divergence: Energy and defense sectors move sideways, event-driven excess returns disappear. Pressure on tech stocks significantly eases; Treasury yields will not continue to rise due to surging oil prices. Leading computing power companies (NVIDIA, TSMC) and other targets with earnings certainty continue their fluctuating upward trend. Software giants (Microsoft, Google) see narrowed volatility, returning to AI commercialization fundamentals. Panic selling of high-valuation small-cap stocks slows down.

• Key Node: If private de-escalation signals are exposed by the media, the Nasdaq will experience a single-day pulse-like surge of about 1%.

2. Secondary High-Probability Scenario (12% probability, active release of de-escalation signals)

• U.S. stocks rebound across the board, with growth stocks leading the gains. Oil prices quickly fall back below $90/barrel, inflation expectations cool, Fed rate cut expectations heat up again, Treasury yields decline. The Nasdaq's single-day gain is highly likely to reach 2%-3%, ushering in a broad rally for tech stocks.

• Previously high-valuation growth targets and AI software stocks, which were most severely suppressed by high interest rates, see the largest rebound. Leading computing power companies surge simultaneously. Aviation and discretionary consumption sectors rise in tandem, while energy and defense sectors experience significant pullbacks.

3. Extremely Low-Probability Scenario (less than 3%, military escalation)

• U.S. stocks suffer a systemic crash, the VIX fear index instantly soars above 30, the S&P 500 falls over 2% in a single day, and the Nasdaq falls over 3% in a single day.

• Tech stocks face a double whammy: surging oil prices push up inflation and rate hike expectations, sharply rising Treasury yields suppress valuations, while recession expectations lead to contraction in corporate IT spending and downward revisions in earnings forecasts. The higher the previous gains of high-valuation targets, the larger the pullback. Only energy and defense sectors rise against the trend, becoming the sole safe haven.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)