Traded Value$IonQ(IONQ.US) Base case (60% probability): Pullback decline, range $36–42, partially retracing the gains since mid-April (from 29 to 43.63 between April 14–23, up over 50%, severely overbought).
Optimistic case (25% probability): Volatile rebound, range $44–48, requires strong catalysts (NVIDIA quantum cooperation, large new orders, technical milestones).
Pessimistic case (15% probability): Deep correction to $32–35, valuation compression, weakness in the broader market / AI sector, no positive catalysts.
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