$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) For GOOGL's upcoming earnings report, I only care about one number: the query volume of AI Overview.
It will be released after the market closes on April 29th Eastern Time, which is early morning April 30th Beijing Time, in 5 days.
Why only this? Because Wall Street consensus has already priced in EPS of 2.68, revenue of 106.9 billion, and Cloud growth of 50%+. Consensus won't move the stock price; the unknown variable is what will.
This unknown variable is whether Gemini is actually cannibalizing search or expanding the market.
Management has been dodging the question for the past few quarters with "we're excited about AI search performance," never giving concrete numbers. If they stick to qualitative descriptions this time, the market will be disappointed. If they provide query volume and AI Overview monetization data, and the data is positive, Google could take another step up.
Personally, my bull case is slightly larger than my bear case, but I'm not willing to go heavy and bet on earnings. I'm holding a 5% position and waiting for the results.
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