US Stock Pre-Market Update for April 27, 2026

I. Pre-Market Overview

The three major index futures showed slight divergence: the Dow fell 0.17% to 49,306 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.09% to 7,188 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 27,427 points. The core conflict lies in the interplay between high AI computing power demand and geopolitical inflation, coupled with high expectations for tech earnings. The market is oscillating at high levels, with capital shifting towards a balanced allocation of "thematic plays + defensive sectors."

II. Semiconductor Sector

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded 18 consecutive gains, setting a record, with its RSI hitting a 20-year extreme, accumulating pressure for a technical pullback. Micron rose 1.2% pre-market, while TSMC, AMD, and NVIDIA rose 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively, showing a convergence in gains. Intel's AI business exceeded expectations ($2.76 billion) and its capital expenditure was raised, confirming the sustainability of computing power demand. However, with narrowing valuation dispersion and crowded capital in the sector, funds are flowing into undervalued segments like equipment and materials, increasing volatility risks for leading stocks.

III. Fund Flows

Divergence within tech, with defensive funds seeing slight inflows. Outflows: pure software AI, high-valuation consumer stocks, and the energy sector (WTI crude rose 2.1% to $96.3, Brent rose 2.3% to $107.2). Inflows: AI computing hardware, utilities, and healthcare. Key signal: NVIDIA's gains were weaker than AMD and Micron, indicating capital is shifting towards earnings realization and valuation attractiveness, enhancing market resilience.

IV. Macro & Policy

US-Iran negotiations are volatile, with the oil price rebound pushing inflation higher, constraining the room for interest rate cuts, though this is partly priced in. CME data: probability of the FOMC holding rates steady this week is 100%, probability of a December rate cut fell to 39% (previous 61%). Tech stocks are returning to earnings dominance. Key events this week: earnings from Microsoft, Google, etc., and the Fed decision, which will determine short-term direction.

V. Trading Observations

1. S&P 500: Resistance 7220-7250 points, support 7150-7120 points. A breakout leads upward, otherwise volatility intensifies.

2. Semiconductors: Monitor trading volume. A decline combined with stock divergence confirms pullback signals.

3. Tech Earnings: Focus on AI capex and cloud business from the four giants. Exceeding expectations alleviates valuation pressure; underperformance may trigger adjustments.

4. Risk Warning: Oil price breaking $98, escalation of US-Iran conflict, or collective earnings underperformance will boost risk-off sentiment.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)