$Sigma Lithium(SGML.US) When the tech sector is pulling back, we can only look at mining stocks. Weekly chart CHOCH, waiting for breakout.

On April 27, 2026, UBS released a lithium industry report. Based on accelerated demand from energy storage and electric vehicles, coupled with supply-side constraints, it comprehensively raised lithium price forecasts, judging that the global lithium market is entering a tight balance and upward cycle.

On prices, UBS significantly revised up lithium price expectations: **Lithium concentrate (6% Li₂O)** saw short-term increases of up to 23%, with long-term prices raised by 17% to $1,400/ton, mainly due to capital and operating cost inflation in major producing regions like Australia and Canada; Battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices were raised 17%-47% for the near-to-medium term, with long-term prices unchanged, primarily affected by compressed profit margins in China's lithium salt processing segment. The price peak is expected in 2027, with lithium concentrate reaching $4,250/ton, and both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide rising to $41,875/ton.

The demand side is experiencing triple explosive growth. First, global energy storage (ESS) demand was substantially revised upward. Geopolitical energy shocks, rising oil and gas prices, surging electricity demand from AI data centers, combined with an expected 30% cost reduction for energy storage systems, led to a revision of global energy storage demand to 1.6 TWh by 2030. Second, the Middle East conflict has pushed up oil and gas prices, widening the total cost of ownership advantage of electric vehicles over internal combustion engine vehicles. European EV sales increased significantly year-on-year, while Chinese EV sales weakened in the short term but are expected to rebound in the second half of the year. Third, the penetration rate of electric heavy-duty trucks in China is rapidly increasing, leading to significant growth in lithium demand from commercial vehicles. Global lithium demand will increase by 623,000 tons LCE from 2025 to 2027, with global battery demand reaching 1.81 TWh and 2.35 TWh in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Supply-side growth is weak and struggling to match demand growth. Lithium supply will only increase by 596,000 tons LCE from 2025 to 2027, lower than the demand increase. IGO lowered its production guidance for Greenbushes, leading to a further tightening of supply in 2026. New lithium projects face triple barriers: policy, geological, and commercial, slowing capacity ramp-up. Even with higher prices, mining companies are cautious about expansion due to macroeconomic uncertainty and raw material supply disruptions. After 2030, the world will need to rely on new, yet-to-be-identified brownfield and greenfield projects to fill the structural supply gap.

Current inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China are at historically low levels, and the overall supply chain is tight, supporting rising lithium prices. In the long term, lithium concentrate prices are supported by rising costs, while lithium compound prices remain stable. The global lithium market will continue to be in a state of shortage.