SNXXNokiaOptimal position f = (win rate × odds − loss rate) / odds
Example: win rate 50%, odds 3:1 → f=(0.5×3−0.5)/3≈33% (single stock position ≤33%).
Review Key points: Currently hot topics are optical fiber and storage.
If you haven't moved from the beginning of last year/January when it was written until now
Up to now, the odds are very attractive.😂
Looked at the sister who's good at options trading, had a gambler's mindset in the early stages!
Later when playing, still need to be rational, look at data and physical condition.
Reduce gambling based on intuition and emotion.
Currently considering one thing:
I have new capital, where to put it?
Are my odds sufficient?
Should I buy now?
Or wait for an opportunity?
$YOFC(06869.HK)$YOFC(06869.HK) In H-shares, Yangtze Optical Fibre's valuation looks more attractive.
$Corning(GLW.US)$Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF(GLWG.US)
[Severe Imbalance in Optical Fiber Supply and Demand] $YOFC(06869.HK)
$YOFC(601869.SH)
AI Brief:
1. What is the core contradiction in the current optical fiber market?
Core = severe imbalance between supply and demand for the specific fiber model G657A2.
Price → surged from 100 yuan/core-km at the beginning of the year to a peak of 256 yuan (a 156% increase), currently still maintaining a high level of 200-210 yuan.
- Supply → leading manufacturers implement a strict long-term agreement quota system, non-agreement customers generally face "no stock" quotes in the market.
2. Why did demand for the G657A2 model suddenly explode?
Three major "rigid" engines on the demand side ignited simultaneously and are price-insensitive:
AI Data Centers → Demand from North American AI data centers for G657A2 surged from 5% to 20-35%, with giants like Meta and Microsoft making bulk purchases in China through integrators.
Drone Applications → Demand has spread from the Russia-Ukraine region to Vietnam, the Middle East, India-Pakistan, etc. It is estimated that drone demand alone will reach 40 million core-km in 2026.
Export Surge → China's optical fiber exports in February 2026 reached nearly 4,000 tons, a record high, more than double the same period last year.
3. Why can't the supply side keep up?
The supply bottleneck is physical and almost unsolvable in the short term: Long expansion cycle → Domestic large manufacturers need 15 months to build new capacity (12 months construction + 3 months commissioning), with effective capacity release earliest in the second half of 2027.
Difficult capacity conversion → Existing production lines switching from other models to G657A2 require 3 months of commissioning, and the yield rate will drop by about 15%, leading to a decrease in actual output.
Upstream constraints → Core raw materials such as high-purity quartz, helium gas (over 90%), etc., are highly dependent on imports, and prices have risen by about 50%.
4. What will the future price trend be?
The market generally expects prices to continue rising.
Core logic = peak season demand + supply bottleneck.
June-September 2026 is the traditional peak season → Operator centralized procurement will further squeeze G657A2 capacity + rigid demand from AI and drones continues + trader stockpiling behavior intensifies.
Conclusion → G657A2 prices may break through 300 yuan/core-km.
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