
Shorting both sides of Nasdaq QQQ options, can it withstand the recent one-sided volatility?
Recently, U.S. stocks have experienced a historic consecutive rally. The QQQ straddle/strangle options expiring on May 6/7/8/11, if they land smoothly, are by no means ordinary. The risk of overnight straddle/strangle positions over several days, with the index potentially gapping, is not low and is completely different from intraday straddle/strangle. Although a vertical spread strategy is used to reduce the prominent risk of naked selling, the multiple-times payout ratio of the spread is also hard to avoid. If the risk of straddle/strangle can be perfectly avoided, it would be the best option strategy choice, collecting time decay (theta) daily to accumulate profits. Straddle/strangle has a natural win rate, but it comes with the loss when encountering large volatility. The aforementioned four consecutive days of unfavorable conditions also occurred in the last four days of October 25 years ago, appearing about once every six months. Doing weekly straddle/strangle buys on the Hang Seng Index cycle options and daily straddle/strangle sells/hedges on QQQ is not a method of occasionally timing the entry. The Nasdaq's pattern of sometimes being volatile and sometimes not, using straddle/strangle buys to enter daily, can lead to a consecutive week of unfavorable outcomes, while the time decay erosion from straddle/strangle sells can compensate. The risk of straddle/strangle can be hedged to reduce the win/loss ratio to around 1:1, with a fairly good success rate. When encountering four consecutive days of large volatility, the cumulative loss is less than one unhedged instance. In the first four months of this year, straddle/strangle selling/hedging yielded positive returns every month. Measured by margin standards, one set in two months can earn back its margin. The overnight risk of holding straddle/strangle positions is what traders fear. Not holding overnight is feasible but the time decay is limited. Hedging can avoid it, but the cost and skill of buying options are also issues, easily creating a 'eating one's own' effect. Traders need experience and skill. Daily entry is a test; if immature, there's no luck to rely on. Index not moving + using volatility when it exists without waste, one side profits, the other side breaks even is enough. Risk is resolved by being able to afford losses and then win. If not a stock god but just a professional retail investor, the former relies on divine calculation, the latter is skill-based trading without judgment. Practice makes perfect to be competent. Overcoming the volatility risk of straddle/strangle selling and the time decay erosion of straddle/strangle buying, one can achieve something. Hedging straddle/strangle methods are nothing more than options and futures. Using options is the most direct, low-cost long options can attack and defend, and the loss from option premiums can be covered. The simplest and most effective is the skillful use of long options and the equal consumption of short options, the two complementing each other. Entering daily, one can encounter any market condition. Enduring hits is key to longevity. Getting knocked out after a few unfavorable trades is a characteristic of straddle/strangle. Stable longevity beats loud theory.$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)
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