I made money by going all-in on Alibaba, but I've come to understand one thing: don't bet all your 'right' calls on a single stock.

In November 2024, I was extremely bullish on Alibaba, bought in with a full position, and have held it until now. The returns have indeed been good.

But to be honest, I'm not happy.

Because from November 2024 to June 2026, Pop Mart surged, memory stocks surged, optical module stocks surged, and TSMC surged – any single one of them rose more than the Alibaba in my hand.

I'm not jealous. I'm reflecting on a question: Why did I dare to go all-in on Alibaba back then?

The answer is glaring – because I was overly confident in my own judgment. I thought "I've got it figured out," thought "Alibaba will definitely rise," and thought no other stock was as reliable as it. So I chose the most extreme form of concentrated investing: a full position in a single stock.

Concentrated investing has always had two sides:

· The good: Deep research, ability to hold, strong profit potential if you bet right.
· The bad: Extremely low tolerance for error; if your judgment is wrong or you encounter a black swan, losses are severe. Also, even if you bet right, you inevitably bear a high opportunity cost – because you've bet all your chips on one outcome.

I am a living example. I made money, but missed out on better investment opportunities, paying a higher opportunity cost for that excessive confidence.

Looking back now, the bullish logic for trends like trendy toys going overseas and AI computing power seems obvious; but at the time, they also faced many uncertainties, just masked by later gains. If I hadn't been so arrogant back then, willing to admit "I can't be sure which logic will materialize first," I would have chosen another way: moderate diversification.

No need for pepper-spray diversification. Just split the position into a few parts:

· One part still for Alibaba, because I understand it and can hold it;
· Another two or three parts for those sectors where "the direction is probably right but I'm less certain," like AI computing power and overseas consumption.

Doing this, even if Alibaba underperforms TSMC, the overall account's rate of return would be smoother, and more importantly – I wouldn't miss the entire era's beta by over-betting on a single judgment.

So, my current understanding of concentration and diversification is:

· Concentrated investing is not wrong, but it should be based on humility. If you truly have a very deep understanding of a stock, you can have a heavy position, but don't go "all-in." Leave yourself some room for "I might be wrong."
· The essence of diversification is to reduce volatility and avoid single-point risk. The underlying mindset for being willing to diversify is admitting the limits of your own predictive ability. You don't need to know which one will be the best, you just need to know which directions are likely to rise, and then allocate a bit to each.

Finally, back to that question: If I had diversified my position back then, would the returns have been better?
The answer is – most likely yes.

This isn't regret, but a lesson in cognitive upgrading bought with money.

In investing, the most expensive thing isn't losing money, but reinforcing a stubborn bias that should have been corrected, through a profitable trade.

Let's encourage each other.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) $POP MART(09992.HK) $Zhongji Innolight(300308.SZ)