$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)SpaceX has two sets of businesses:

First set: Regular Starlink

Satellite → Ground Gateway Station (Gateway) → Fiber Internet

This model relies on a large number of ground gateway stations.

After the satellite receives data, it ultimately needs to connect to the internet backbone.

Second set: Direct to Cell (satellite-to-phone)

This is the real competitor to ASTS.

This is what SpaceX is currently working on in partnership with T-Mobile.

Process:

Mobile phone ←→ Starlink satellite ←→ T-Mobile core network

In this case, the phone doesn't need an extra antenna.

The biggest difference between ASTS and SpaceX

ASTS:

* Satellites are very large

* Single satellite has a huge deployed area

* Goal is to directly connect ordinary 4G/5G phones

* No modification to phone hardware

SpaceX:

* Extremely large number of satellites

* Wins through the scale of the Starlink constellation

* Direct to Cell functionality was added later

What are ASTS investors really worried about?

Not base stations

But:

SpaceX already has existing customers.

For example:

* T-Mobile

* Possibly more operators in the future

While ASTS currently is mainly:

* AT&T

* Verizon alliance.

So the market is essentially betting:

Which one will operators ultimately choose?

However, ASTS has one particularly big advantage that many technical experts believe: ASTS's single-satellite communication capability might be stronger than Starlink's Direct-to-Cell.

The reason is:

The area of ASTS's satellite's deployed large array is close to the size of a basketball court.

While the Starlink Direct-to-Cell function is just an add-on module on the Starlink satellite.

So the industry has been debating:

* SpaceX wins on scale and funding

* ASTS wins on being specifically designed for direct-to-phone

To summarize in one sentence:

Regular Starlink does rely on ground gateway stations, but the "Direct to Cell" business that ASTS and SpaceX are competing in essentially requires connecting to operator networks. The difference isn't about having base stations or not, but about who can serve more mobile phone users with lower costs, higher speeds, and greater capacity.