The market is already pricing in the MSTR secondary offering financing. BTC hasn't entered extreme fear yet, so the crypto stocks are being discounted first.
We are very likely to see the bottoming opportunity of the belief cycle this year.
Over the past few days, both MSTR and BMNR have fallen a lot. BTC breaking below 60k and ETH breaking below 1.6k are of course the main reasons, but the two DATs have fallen even more, which means their premiums have compressed further. I believe the primary cause is STRC's significant de-pegging to 70+, deviating too much from the 100 target price without recovery for a long time, reflecting the market's extremely low confidence in MSTR's credit premium. I'll try to analyze why this is happening.
Since STRC started increasing volume in March '26, it has already raised 10 billion for MSTR to hoard coins. Its financing logic has also become "STRC issues more to hoard coins, MSTR issues more to pay interest." The implied meaning is that Saylor prioritizes the interests of STRC preferred shareholders, covering STRC's high dividends through MSTR issuance, and using dividend adjustments to anchor STRC at a price of 100. This logic worked well before, until May when Saylor sold 32 BTC. With insufficient cash reserves, the market began to worry that MSTR lacked the ability to pay interest and would sell coins to cover it. To quell market concerns, Saylor proposed that selling coins is fine, as long as the per-share coin holding increases. But the market didn't buy it. What followed was a continuous decline in MSTR's premium, STRC falling to 90/80/70, and BTC breaking below 60k.
I believe from this point on, Saylor's market expectation management has gone wrong. The management of the three expectations—STRC at 100, per-share coin holding, and BTC holdings—is very delicate. It's fine during a bull cycle, but in a bear market, it's almost an impossible trinity. Maintaining per-share coin holding means MSTR cannot be issued at a low premium. With limited cash, how can the interest rights of STRC creditors be guaranteed? So STRC holders voted with their feet, driving the price down to 70+. According to the original plan, Saylor could fix STRC at 100 by adjusting the interest rate. But currently, with limited cash, financing closed, and needing to raise rates further, the market would be even more skeptical of your ability to pay interest.
This is like a juggler in a circus throwing balls into the air. Keeping one or two balls from falling isn't hard, but keeping three balls from falling simultaneously requires great skill. Therefore, to restore confidence in STRC and prove Saylor's ability to pay interest, the other two expectations must be broken: either issue MSTR at a low premium (damaging per-share coin holding) or sell coins (damaging the coin-hoarding expectation).
As for BMNR, over the past week, mNAV has fallen to 0.85, a historical low. The logic is the same. Doubts about confidence in STRC will spread to all DAT business models; they're all grasshoppers tied to the same rope. Although BMNR has no debt and ETH staking provides interest-paying capability, the market doesn't care. It's a blanket sell-off now.
$Strategy(MSTR.US)$Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9.0 Perp(STRC.US)
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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