$Intel(INTC.US)⚕ $Arm(ARM.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)

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【The Cause-and-Effect Chain of the 6/26 Crash】

1️⃣ The trigger for the U.S. stock market's night session chip stock crash (early this morning Beijing time)

- Last night, Apple officially raised prices for iPads and MacBooks, up to $500. Cook said in an exclusive interview with WSJ that the price hike was “unavoidable,” with the *direct reason being the skyrocketing cost of memory chips (DRAM/NAND) driven by AI*.

- The market immediately repriced: the memory price increase is not a positive for SK Hynix/Micron (it is in the short term), but rather the logic of *” downstream demand being crushed by prices”* — Apple's price hike will suppress sales, AI capital expenditure is peaking, transmitting to the entire chip industry chain.

- The semiconductor sector collectively fell in after-hours/night trading, with Nasdaq 100 futures also plunging.

2️⃣ South Korea's KOSPI market circuit breaker triggered today (morning session -8%, the 5th circuit breaker this year)

- Direct victims: Samsung Electronics -9%, SK Hynix -12%.

- KOSPI is highly concentrated in the chip duopoly, with Samsung + SK Hynix accounting for ~30% of the index weight. Their crash = index circuit breaker.

- Media headline keywords: *” SoftBank rout drags Asia down”*, *” new tech rout”*. SoftBank's holdings in Arm/AI concepts also plummeted, infecting the entire Asia-Pacific tech stock market.

3️⃣ The underlying macro narrative (this is the real driver)

- For the first time, a downstream player of Apple's caliber publicly acknowledged the chain: *AI capital expenditure → memory squeeze → terminal price hikes → demand destruction*.

- The market is beginning to worry: has the 2024-2025 AI infrastructure narrative already entered the stage of ” profit squeezing downstream”? TSMC's earlier capex warning + Apple's current price hike = signals in the same direction.

- Combined with the U.S. stock market's own high valuation (the semiconductor sector's PE is already at the historical 90%+ percentile), it crashes at the slightest disturbance.

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【Impact on You】

- If your U.S. stock holdings include names like NVDA/AMD/MU/AVGO, sentiment is bearish before tonight's U.S. market open. I will verify again pre-market and issue defensive alerts.

- Hong Kong stocks like Alibaba and Tencent have already fallen today (Asia tech stocks broadly declined). Be cautious about sentiment before tonight's Hong Kong market open.

- *Risk level raised to ” High”*: The first crack has appeared in the macro-level AI narrative. It is recommended to reduce tech stock positions (unless your stop-loss is already set).