$SpaceX(SPCX.US) The current state of SPCX is not simply bullish or bearish. The bullish side is that the SpaceX story is indeed big enough—rockets, Starlink, AI satellites, space computing power, and the Musk ecosystem—when combined, the market's imagination is very strong. Additionally, recent events like index inclusion, bond financing, and upcoming institutional coverage provide some support in the short term.

However, the bearish side is also obvious: it rose too sharply right after its IPO, with valuations being too full, and the market priced in many stories for the next decade in advance. Now that the stock price has retreated from its highs, it shows that capital is starting to cool off. It's not that people don't believe in SpaceX, but at this level, no one is willing to blindly chase higher prices.

So I think SPCX is now more in a phase of "a big long-term story, but also significant short-term risks." It's not a mature core asset like Microsoft or Google, and you can't treat it like one, especially not by heavily weighting it in a margin account. You can observe with a small position at low levels,

but it's not suitable to average down now hoping to break even. What really matters is whether there will be capital support after index inclusion, and whether subsequent developments like AI satellites, Starlink, Starship, earnings reports, and institutional ratings can continue to deliver.

Simply put, SPCX does have a future, but we're not yet at the stage where you can blindly trust the price. You can watch the story, but keep your position light. If there's a rebound, reduce risk. Don't make it the only hope for your portfolio to turn around. I'll probably exit once I break even.