
Thanks to my brother for the selfless sharing!!

Currently, the story of RKLB + Iridium building a toll road in space may be more imaginative in terms of strategic depth and valuation logic than PL's data factory.
RKLB + Iridium: An empire still in its infrastructure investment phase
1. Business Essence: Not just a rocket company, but an integrator of launch (Electron + future Neutron), satellite manufacturing, and communication networks (Iridium), building end-to-end space infrastructure. The Neutron rocket is highly anticipated and seen as a potential medium-lift competitor that could challenge SpaceX's Falcon 9.
2. Financial Status: Still in the investment phase. Full-year 2025 revenue was approximately $602 million, up 38% year-over-year, with a backlog of up to $1.85 billion. However, Q1 2026 still saw a net loss of $45 million, as it continues to burn cash on Neutron's R&D and integration.
3. Extended Valuation Logic: In my personal view, Iridium's L-band spectrum is worth $4 billion. After merging with RKLB, this core communication asset directly becomes the toll booth of the new empire, and its strategic value will be further amplified.
Planet Labs: A profitable data supplier, but its valuation is already stretched
1. Business Essence: The world's largest Earth imaging data supplier, more like a space data service provider. Recently signed a $230 million satellite manufacturing contract with Japan's JSAT, extending into selling satellites. Latest quarterly revenue was $94.2 million, up 42% year-over-year, with a backlog of up to $906 million.
2. Key Profit Inflection Point: The company achieved its first quarterly adjusted EBITDA profit (+$2.4 million), and full-year free cash flow turned positive. This is a sign of the business moving towards health.
3. Risk Lies in Price: Although I personally don't consider spectrum a core asset, the market treated it as space AI to speculate on during the frenzy. The current forward P/S ratio is as high as 20.82x, far exceeding the three-year average (3.96x). Analyst consensus target price is $30.61, while the stock price was as high as $43 in early June. Some even believe its current valuation is near perfect and may face significant correction pressure once the hype around SpaceX's potential IPO subsides.
If you firmly believe spectrum is a hard asset, and RKLB+Iridium is building a space communication empire that can continuously collect tolls, and you can accept its short-term cash burn and the uncertainty of Neutron's R&D, then RKLB's story is grander with potentially a higher ceiling. If you value the certainty of a proven business model and imminent profitability more, then PL is clearly safer. But beware, its current stock price already incorporates too many perfect expectations, and the weight of the spectrum's value itself is low. Once earnings growth falls short of expectations, the risk of valuation decline is not small.
Overall, valuations for both companies are not cheap by traditional metrics, but RKLB's current strategic positioning, integrating Iridium's scarce spectrum resources, may better align with my personal definition of hardcore space assets.
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