Gold, Silver, and Hang Seng Index bottoming out and rebounding VS Diverging S&P and Nasdaq - Review for June 30th and July 1st

Hello everyone for the second half of the year, but my health isn't very good; so I'll keep it short today, hoping to share in detail with everyone after I recover.

Last Tuesday's title was extremely important because it clearly pointed out the highlights in the current market trend; of course, the content in the article also explicitly mentioned being cautious about the divergence in the AI semiconductor trend. However, what's disappointing is that even the previously strong $Corning(GLW.US) $Intel(INTC.US) might be showing signs of a top reversal. Fortunately, in the last paragraph, it clearly named the capital flowing into biopharmaceutical stocks like $Moderna(MRNA.US) and $Eli Lilly(LLY.US). I had already decided to position my US stock portfolio in biopharmaceuticals, healthcare, etc., on the first day of the decline.

Basically, we need to be very cautious about AI and storage-related stocks now. There's a high chance that initial topping signs have already appeared for $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL.US)$ $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US); therefore, if US stocks really break new highs again in July, we should pay attention to the S&P 500 index, not the Nasdaq 100 index.

The reason for the entire AI hype fading this time stems from $Meta Platforms(META.US) personally stating that there's an oversupply of AI computing power. This situation immediately dragged down related computing power stocks $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US). This concern has now clearly spread globally. Blindly catching the falling knife now will be very dangerous.

Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the related AI and semiconductor industry chains have not been spared either. $SMIC (00981.HK)$ $Kingboard Laminates (01888.HK)$ $Zhipu (02513.HK)$ $Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$ $MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$ $Shenghong Technology (02476.HK)$ $GigaDevice (03986.HK)$ have basically had their upward momentum clearly broken; some are more likely to have already hit their yearly highs. If you need further analysis on individual stock trends, feel free to leave a comment. Finally, I'll share the trend changes for each Hong Kong stock in detail after my health improves. However, it's important to note that this time is most likely not an ordinary pullback. Combined with the lifting of the lock-up period in July, there might be some sharp one or two-day crashes.

On the contrary, July, as mentioned before, should be the beginning of a paradise for index constituent stocks; $Alibaba(BABA.US) $Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ have fallen the fastest, so their rebound strength might be the strongest in the end; but timing-wise, there's a high chance we need to wait for other tech stocks to rebound first, watch for ambush opportunities $Alibaba SG July 24 Call B.C (14258.HK)$. The trend of $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$ needs attention. As long as 420 provides support, there's a greater chance of rebounding to near the top of the range around 465. Watch for ambush deployment $Tencent SG June 24 Call A.C (28821.HK)$. The rest, like Xiaomi, might also see a rebound after overselling $Xiaomi SG June 24 Call F.C (14259.HK)$. $Meituan-W (03690.HK)$, if it can reclaim 74 on any day, might show a false breakdown from a double bottom, then it would have the conditions to challenge higher levels like 80 or even 83 $Meituan SG June 24 Bull G.C (64091.HK)$.

Positions and Trading
Crops suddenly experienced a violent short squeeze. Fortunately, very strict risk controls were implemented from the start, otherwise, it would have been a disaster.

Also took small profits on Euro and Pound trends. After finally analyzing economic data and the new Fed Chair's comments, I found that the US Dollar Index might not be able to continue rising as imagined.

Deployed a long position in gold. After waiting for over half a year, gold might have finally completed its first adjustment; of course, the resistance on the left side in the future is very significant, but the first resistance level for a rebound is 4300; if it can only reach 4400 or above, I will simultaneously increase related deployments, including different instruments $Gold SG June 24 Call C.C (11124.HK)$ $Gold SG June 24 Call B.C (11113.HK)$. The Non-Farm Payroll data was significantly worse than expected, greatly reducing the chance of a Fed rate hike. The drop in the US Dollar Index is beneficial for gold, silver, and Hong Kong stock trends at the same time.

$A Hang Seng Tech Covered Call (03589.HK)$ bottom-fished the Hang Seng Tech Index-related covered call ETF. As repeatedly mentioned in videos and articles, for high-dividend ETFs, especially covered calls like $A Hang Seng H-Shares Covered Call (03519.HK)$, it's essential to do some basic research and homework first; avoid blindly engaging in any overly risky or aggressive operations. First and foremost, the most important thing is to deploy your normal available funds in average portions using a dollar-cost averaging approach. A better tactic would be to implement a regular monthly "dollar-cost averaging" plan. The reason is that covered calls are most advantageous during sideways markets, but if the market enters a sustained uptrend or downtrend, returns will be severely affected. According to the Beck Test data, normally, based on the data of Hong Kong's three major indices, the total return over 10 years will definitely outperform. Because Hong Kong stocks have been in a huge range-bound market for the past 10 years. The second key point is to avoid deploying in an "all-in" manner at high levels, as this completely lacks proper risk management.

$Silver SG June 24 Call A.C (11125.HK)$ simultaneously deployed a related long position in silver. If it can reclaim the key level of 64 or above, there's a high chance of a rebound to the major resistance area near 70 to 72.

Reflection
Only when I get sick do I realize that health is the most important thing. However, people never cherish what they have, instead pursuing things they haven't yet obtained. We repeatedly remind ourselves in this cycle that a healthy body is the capital for all actions. We must stay away from any habits or things that affect our health. At this age, we must be responsible for ourselves and those around us. If you ever see me posting articles late at night again, please leave a comment to sternly remind me of the importance of health. "Beauty sleep" is very important for us at this age of forty. Dear readers, please remember to leave comments to remind me.

Deployment
In US stocks, biotech, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare still reign supreme. Basically, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, they have become the market leaders. Besides looking for those with good chart setups, you can pay attention to the sector stocks within $SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI.US)$. Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the current capital flow clearly favors "bottom-fishing"; therefore, we need to watch out for a possible rebound in previously lagging tech stocks and high-dividend stocks $Hang Seng High Dividend Stock (03466.HK)$. It's already 11:30 as I write this. The bell rings the signal for sleep. Let's chat again after I recover.
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