Emotional phase over 🔚

Mistake was playing with leverage 😂

The rest of the review seems okay haha

Enough emotions, time for some rational and normal stuff!

III. The Complete Evolution Path of This Semiconductor Bull Market

Real industry bottlenecks → Earnings realization → Valuation increase → Market narrative diffusion → Individual stock long-term optionalization → Market-wide leverage addition → Positive news fails to push prices higher, market peaks → Compressed deleveraging.

1. Long-term optionalization: The market no longer only looks at 12-month earnings, directly pricing the industry's potential over the next 3-5 years. HBM and memory are given long-term scarcity premiums, leading to valuation bubbles in high-beta memory stocks.

2. Leverage crowding amplifies volatility: Capital places multi-layered bets through individual stocks, long-term options, 3x leveraged ETFs (SOXL), margin trading, and CTA trend-following programs. Synchronized buying during rallies and selling during declines create one-sided liquidity stampedes. US option trading volume surged significantly in June 2026, with leveraged trading becoming the main driver of market moves.

3. Attention bull market risk: The entire market is highly unified in its bullish view. All negative information is interpreted as long-term positive news (non-falsifiable narrative risk). The market lacks counter-trend buying, appearing liquid but actually extremely fragile.

IV. Seven Stages of the Market Cycle (T0-T6)

1. T0: Healthy rise driven by fundamentals; T1: The sector becomes the mainstream market narrative; T2: Revaluation of individual stocks' long-term value; T3: Narrative fully saturated, unanimous bullishness; T4: Reflexive top, positive news no longer lifts prices; T5: Forced deleveraging (current stage), collective selling of leveraged, options, and high-volatility positions; T6: Risk cleared, ready for repositioning.

V. Pain Points of Traditional Investment Frameworks Failing

Traditional research relies on monthly/quarterly industry data, but this round of deleveraging involves intraday, multi-day volatility. Simple fixed-percentage stop-losses are easily washed out. Judging the bottom based solely on price decline is impossible; monitoring trading structure indicators is essential.

VI. Ten Structural Signals to Judge the End of Deleveraging

Cannot just watch price declines; must simultaneously observe: Leveraged ETFs see high volume without new lows; High-beta memory stocks stop falling; Positive news no longer triggers sell-offs; Call option crowding recedes; Put/call ratio rises; Negative news no longer causes sharp drops; Leaders stabilize first; Long-term industry demand does not deteriorate. The article judges the current stage as T5 forced deleveraging, nearing its end but with aftershocks remaining.

VII. Practical Investment Implications

1. Distinguish two types of declines: Exit if fundamentals deteriorate; Adjustments due only to trading crowding and leverage unwinding are short-term. The long-term AI theme is not over.

2. Risk control upgrade: Cannot just study company fundamentals; must also track options, leveraged ETFs, and market narrative crowding. Reduce long-term, high-volatility positions and cut leverage ahead of market tops.

3. Long-term discipline: The long-term logic of the AI industry remains unchanged, but long-term option premiums will contract cyclically. Do not maintain full positions with high leverage and high long-term volatility exposure. Reposition into core beneficiary leaders after deleveraging is complete.